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Black Friday Expected to Break Record with R$ 5.4 Billion in Sales, According to CNC, Even with Economic Challenges.
Black Friday Expected to Break Record and Generate R$ 5.4 Billion, Reports CNC
The Black Friday is expected to hit a record in sales this Friday (28), according to projections released by the National Confederation of Commerce of Goods, Services and Tourism (CNC), which estimates a revenue of R$ 5.4 billion, the highest value since the beginning of the historical series in 2010.
The survey shows what to expect for the date, who is making the projections, when the peak of purchases occurs, where the impact will be felt in the national retail, how consumption is expected to react, and why the scenario points to growth even with challenges in the Economy.
According to CNC, the expected volume represents an increase of 2.4% compared to that recorded in 2024. Although the Economy is still pressured by family debt and high delinquency, the entity considers that Black Friday should provide a significant boost to commerce.
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The president of the CNC-Sesc-Senac System, José Roberto Tadros, emphasizes that, even with internal and external uncertainties, retail is likely to see improvement.
“It is a moment of caution in the national economy, of uncertainties in the external scenario, and of record debt of Brazilian families, but still, we will see an increase in sales”, he stated.
Economic Scenario Challenges, But Sales Should Grow
Despite optimistic projections, CNC points out that the growth could be even greater if it weren’t for the high level of debt. Today, many families face high interest rates, restricted credit, and accumulated debts. This limits their purchasing power and reduces part of the demand during Black Friday.
On the other hand, important economic factors contribute to the growth of sales. Among them are the decline in exchange rates and significant improvement in the labor market. Thus, consumers’ purchasing power increases and paves the way for a more intense Black Friday.
In the last 12 months, the average exchange rate dropped by 8.3%, strengthening the real. In November 2024, the dollar was around R$ 5.80 — a level well above the current one. Additionally, the country is experiencing the lowest unemployment rate in the historical series recorded by IBGE, reinforcing income levels.
According to CNC, real income grew by 5.5% in the second quarter of 2025, compared to 2024. This result creates a more favorable environment for consumption and supports the recovery of retail.
Sectors Expected to Lead Revenues During Black Friday
CNC projects a strong concentration of revenue in three sectors, responsible for 68% of transactions during this year’s Black Friday.
Thus, hypermarkets and supermarkets are expected to generate around R$ 1.32 billion, followed by electronics and household goods, which will total R$ 1.24 billion. After that, furniture and appliances are expected to reach R$ 1.15 billion.
In addition to these segments, the retail of clothing and accessories is expected to generate R$ 950 million, while pharmacies, perfumeries, and cosmetics are expected to reach R$ 380 million.
The date, therefore, reinforces its position as the fifth most relevant for Brazilian commerce, behind only Christmas, Mother’s Day, Children’s Day, and Father’s Day.
Actual Discounts: Categories with the Most Potential
CNC also analyzed price variations over the last 40 days to measure the potential for actual discounts during Black Friday. Thus, prices of 150 items spread across 30 categories were monitored.
The study reveals that 70% of the monitored groups have concrete room for price reductions. Among the categories with the greatest potential for decline are:
- Stationery: –10.14%
- Books: –9.02%
- Jewelry and Bijouterie: –9.01%
- Perfume: –8.20%
- Household Items: –8.18%
- Personal Hygiene: –8.11%
With this, consumers will have the opportunity to take advantage of more aggressive discounts, especially in categories traditionally sought during Black Friday.
Black Friday Expected to Boost the Economy and Consolidate Historical Record
The combination of a heated job market, favorable exchange rates, and the expectation of actual discounts creates the ideal environment for Black Friday 2025 to achieve a new record in revenue and help boost the national Economy.
Meanwhile, retailers are preparing to meet demand and are betting on the event as one of the main strategies for economic recovery. Therefore, if the projections are confirmed, this will be the strongest Black Friday in history, consolidating the reaction power of Brazilian commerce even in the face of structural challenges.
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