Fuels – Dollar High Has Greater Influence on Prices Than Oil Value

Fuel Prices Vary According to Crude Oil Prices and the Dollar Value

Fuel prices mainly differ based on two main variables: the price of crude oil and the price of the dollar. The price of Brent crude, which Petrobras uses as a reference, has risen by almost 15%. However, if we look at a longer time period, the main culprit for the increase in gasoline and diesel prices is the American currency, which is currently 5.44 reais.

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Impact from the Pandemic:

The oil sector was greatly impacted by COVID-19, but with the restoration of the economy, prices returned to their original positions. On Friday’s trading session (19), the price of Brent crude reached US$ 64.44 per barrel. Despite a significant increase from the lowest point, the price of crude oil has still fallen by 6.9% compared to last January.

However, fuel prices in Brazil have not followed this decline. According to ANP, in January 2020, Brazilians were paying an average of 4.58 reais per liter of gasoline. Now they have to pay an average of 4.83 reais – but in some states, they have already paid over 5 reais per liter.

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The Influence of the American Currency:

From January 2020 until today, the US dollar has risen by 34% against the real. On Monday (22), the situation was still complicated and the dollar’s exchange rate surpassed 5.50 reais. This led the Central Bank (BC) to conduct an auction of US$ 1 billion to mitigate the losses.

Alessandra Ribeiro, economist and partner at Tendências Consultoria, says that “When we look at a larger horizon, the exchange rate has been much more important for the rise in fuel prices than oil.”