Supply and Demand Dynamics Influence Gasoline Prices in Brazil

Written by Corporativo

Published on 24/10/2023 at 09:36

Foto: diariodonordeste.verdesmares.com.br

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Gasoline Prices Reflect Internal Situation, While Global Market Impacts Diesel Cost.

The current landscape of gasoline prices, according to recent studies, appears to be strongly linked to the domestic dynamics of supply and demand. According to assessments from Argus, current global market quotations would not allow for a decrease in prices.

Data collected by Argus, in partnership with fuel importers and international traders, indicate that the cost to import a shipment of gasoline hovers around R$3/l at ports in the North and Northeast regions, taking into account port and storage costs. However, the price of gasoline at the port of Itaqui is expected to reach around R$2.8/l soon.

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In line with the guidelines set in May regarding its new pricing policy, Petrobras reiterated its commitment to consider competition and alternatives present in the domestic market. The oil giant is currently facing a significant increase in the consumption of hydrated ethanol in Brazil, which results in a decrease in the demand for gasoline. A clear evidence of this trend was the growing export promoted by Petrobras in September.

Diesel: Rising Price Reflects International Scenario

Regarding diesel, the increase of R$0.25/l points to a scenario where there is a tightening in both domestic and global supply of this fuel. This price adjustment seems to be more aligned with what is observed in the international market. To contextualize, at the port of Itaqui, the price set by Petrobras is expected to rise to R$3.97/l, getting even closer to international values. According to assessments from Argus, with data collected from importers and external traders, the cost to import a shipment of diesel hovers around R$4.07/l for products originating from Russia and R$4.34/l for fuels from other sources.

Source: Amance Boutin, fuel specialist at Argus.

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