GDP Growth stands out at 3,3%, while the transformation industry suffers a fall of 0,5%.

In the current economic scenario, the National Confederation of Industry (CNI) highlights an encouraging projection for Brazilian GDP in 2023, pointing to growth of 3,3%. However, while some sectors demonstrate strength, others face significant challenges.

Uncovering the industry numbers

When analyzing the manufacturing industry, we can see an expectation of a decline of 0,5% for this year. This drop is largely influenced by decreasing demand and reduced production, with a more critical look at sectors that depend heavily on credit. The high interest rate scenario has proven to be an obstacle for these segments.

Robson Braga de Andrade, president of CNI, considers: “The industry, crucial for the robustness of Brazilian production and its continuous innovation, is facing moments of contraction. Impacted by high interest rates and our tax system, their ability to invest and grow is challenged.”

Other industrial segments, however, show varying performances. There is an expectation of industrial GDP growth of 2% in 2023. The extractive industry, supported by the production of iron ore, oil and coal, has an optimistic estimate of growth of 6,7% this year. Furthermore, the construction industry and public utility industrial services (SIUP) also indicate expansions of 1,5% and 5,3%, respectively.

Mário Sérgio Telles, executive manager of Economy, highlights: “Although part of the industry related to the external market performed well this year, the manufacturing industry is pressured by economic policies and challenges in demand.”

Featured sectors for 2023

The agricultural sector, with promising soybean and corn harvests, forecasts impressive growth of 15,5% in 2023, even with the moderate global scenario. Meanwhile, the Services sector, the main protagonist of economic growth in the first half of the year, expects revised growth of 2,1% for the year.

Brazilian foreign trade also has encouraging news. The CNI projects exports of US$331 billion, resulting in a record trade surplus of US$73,7 billion in 2023.

Economic indicators in focus

Inflation, monitored by the IPCA, is expected to close 2023 at 4,9%. Despite being a lower number than that recorded in 2022, it is still above the established target.

Finally, in relation to the Selic rate, the scenario suggests a slowdown in inflation. With cuts predicted by the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom), the expectation is that the Selic rate will end 2023 at 11,75% per year.

Source: Journalism – CNI.