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Coal Will Be Increasingly Excluded From The Power Generation Market In The Next Three Decades As The Costs Of Renewable Energies Fall And Technology Improves The Flexibility Of Grids Worldwide.
This is the conclusion of a report from Bloomberg New Energy Finance, which estimated that around US$ 11.5 trillion in investments will be directed to electricity generation by 2050. Of this total, 85%, or US$ 9.8 trillion, will be allocated to wind and solar energy and other zero-emission technologies, such as hydro and nuclear, the London-based research company reported.
Better batteries, which allow grid managers to store energy for times when there is no wind or sun, will enable electricity distributors to take advantage of the falling costs of solar panels and wind turbines. As natural gas plants can start operating in a few minutes, most distributors looking for guaranteed generation capacity will opt for this fuel.
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“Coal is expected to be the biggest loser in the long term,” said Elena Giannakopoulou, head of energy economics at BNEF. “It is outperformed in cost by wind and solar energy in generating large amounts of electricity and in flexibility by batteries and gas, which is why the future power system will reorganize around renewable and cheap sources.”
BNEF’s projections contrast with the more optimistic scenario of the International Energy Agency for electricity generation, forecasting that clean energy and fossil fuels will reach parity, with 50% of the market for each, by 2025. The central projection of the Paris-based institution puts both sides on equal footing by 2040 and indicates that fossil fuels will account for about two-thirds of generation by then, unless governments take further measures to restrict regulation, states the IEA.
BNEF’s outlook shows that renewable energies are likely to end up dominating power generation by 2050, taking on, by then, approximately the same share of the sector currently held by natural gas and coal.
BNEF’s scenario, established in a 150-page annual report compiled from the insights of 65 analysts worldwide, is based on country-by-country modeling for the evolution of the electricity market and cost projections for different power generation technologies.
Gas
Gas will maintain a large part of its market share, says BNEF. The nature of the plants that will be built in the future will lean toward peaker units, which can be turned on and off quickly by power distributors, and will move away from baseload plants, which tend to operate 24/7. BNEF projects that power distributors will burn much less coal over time.
Global Warming
The decline of coal will not be enough to drastically change the gradually increasing global temperature landscape above the 2 degrees Celsius limit since pre-industrial times, which has become the climate goal of the United Nations.
“Even if we closed all the coal plants in the world by 2035, the energy sector would still be advancing above the safe trajectory for the climate, burning a lot of gas without emission controls,” said Matthias Kimmel, energy economist at BNEF.
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