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Alexandre Wolwacz, the Stormer, Compares the American Debt of US$ 33 Trillion with the Brazilian Reality and Claims That Brazil Could Go Bankrupt Without a Strong Industry and Productivity
The warning made by trader and writer Alexandre Wolwacz, known as Stormer, reignited the debate on the country’s fiscal sustainability. According to him, Brazil could go bankrupt in up to 3 years if it maintains the current trajectory of high public spending and low productive capacity. Unlike the United States, which easily sustains US$ 33 trillion in debt, Brazil would not have the same economic structure to support such a level of indebtedness.
Stormer argues that the problem lies not only in the size of the debt but in the lack of industry, education, and innovation capable of generating confidence in the country. While the U.S. attracts global capital even while in debt, Brazil is nearing the tolerance limit.
Who Can Sustain Such High Debts
The United States can roll over billion-dollar debts because it concentrates factors that no other country combines.
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Brazilian city gains industrial hub for 85 companies that is equivalent to 55 football fields.
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Peugeot and Citroën factory in Argentina cuts production by half and opens a layoff program for more than 2,000 employees after Brazil drastically reduced purchases of Argentine vehicles.
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A Brazilian city gains a factory worth R$ 300 million with the capacity to process 200 thousand tons of wheat per year, a mill of 660 tons/day, silos for 42 thousand tons, and an industrial area of 276 thousand m².
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Havan will leave the shopping mall in Blumenau to inaugurate something that the chain has never done before: a megastore in half-timbered style in the Historic Center of the city, which is expected to be completed in May and change the landscape of local retail.
In addition to institutional stability, it has a robust industrial base and highly qualified human capital, with millions of people trained for technological innovation.
This ensures the so-called “TINA effect – There Is No Alternative,” meaning there is no alternative as safe as investing in the U.S.
According to Stormer, large funds would never allocate hundreds of billions of dollars to economies like Russia, India, or Brazil.
Capital prefers the U.S. due to predictability, productive strength, and the central role of the dollar in the global financial system.
How Much Debt Can Brazil Bear
The specialist highlights that, in Brazil, the capacity to sustain debt is much lower.
With a weakened industrial base and severe failures in the educational system, the country cannot generate enough innovation to attract large volumes of long-term investment.
Stormer’s comparison is direct: while the U.S. has tens of millions of people with high cognitive capacity and educated in top institutions, Brazil would have only a minimal fraction of that contingent, insufficient to sustain sustainable growth.
Where the Most Immediate Risk Lies
In the trader’s assessment, the biggest risk is not just the gross debt but the government’s strategy to raise taxes without reducing spending.
In recent months, discussions have emerged about increased taxes on inheritance and wealth, along with changes to the IOF.
For Stormer, this creates a dangerous cycle: it suffocates companies and investors without addressing the central problem, which is public spending.
The consequence would be a loss of competitiveness, capital flight, and a faster fiscal deterioration than seen in 2015–2016 when the country entered recession and experienced a political crisis.
Why the U.S. Resists and Brazil Does Not
Stormer’s statement makes it clear that it is not enough to compare absolute debt figures.
The U.S. finances itself because it has industry, innovation, institutional confidence, and the dollar as a global currency.
Meanwhile, Brazil relies on tax collection and lacks a productive base to sustain high indebtedness.
In his view, if there is no course correction, Brazil could face fiscal and economic collapse in up to three years.
The country would not have the same maneuvering room to issue debt without losing international credibility.
For Stormer, Brazilian society would be experiencing a “fiscal Stockholm Syndrome”, believing that the current policy is sustainable when in fact it could push the country into an even greater crisis.
The specialist emphasizes that the debate should go beyond the short term and focus on structural reforms that strengthen industry and education.
Do you believe Brazil could go bankrupt if it continues increasing public spending without investing in productivity? Or do you think the country still has room to take on more debt? Leave your opinion in the comments — we want to hear from those who live this in practice.
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