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INEEP Analysis Shows That the Sharing Regime of Pre-Salt Increases Financial Returns to the Union, Strengthens Petrobras, and Prevents Billion-Dollar Losses in Case of Approval of the New Bill That Changes Exploration Rules
A study by the Institute of Strategic Studies of Oil, Natural Gas, and Biofuels concluded that the pre-salt sharing regime is more advantageous for Brazil than the concession model, as it guarantees billions in additional resources to the State and strengthens energy sovereignty. According to the survey, Petrobras’s participation as an operator in the pre-salt blocks is crucial for the Union to retain a larger share of the so-called profit-oil.
The alert arises amid the debate over the Bill 3.178/2019, which removes Petrobras’s right of preference in bidding under the sharing regime and transfers the decision on the model to be adopted in future auctions to the National Energy Policy Council (CNPE). For researchers, this change weakens Petrobras, reduces the State’s control over the sector, and compromises national energy security.
Why the Sharing Regime is Considered More Advantageous
According to INEEP, between 2013 and 2023, ten auctions resulted in the hiring of 24 areas under the sharing regime.
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Petrobras operates in 16 of these areas, where the profit-oil destined for the Union was, on average, 43.5%. In the eight blocks without state participation, the average index fell to 28.7%.
This difference represents billions of reais in revenue that, according to the study, were only possible thanks to the model that ensures Petrobras’s presence.
In addition to the direct revenue gain, the state-owned company plays a strategic role in coordinating production and transferring technology to the sector.
The Risk of the New Bill
Bill 3.178/2019, already approved by the Infrastructure Committee, proposes to remove Petrobras’s priority in auctions.
For INEEP, this change may weaken the State’s ability to direct pre-salt exploration and reduce the share of resources allocated to public policies.
The study also points out that in the auction held in 2023, without Petrobras’s participation, interest was low: out of five blocks offered, only one was contracted.
For researchers, this is a sign that the state-owned company is a key player in maintaining the attractiveness and competitiveness of the rounds.
The Social and Economic Impact of the Pre-Salt Sharing Regime
Created by Law No. 12.351/2010, the sharing regime stipulates that part of the collected resources be directed to the Pre-Salt Social Fund, which finances strategic areas such as education, health, science, environment, and adaptation to climate change.
Abandoning this model, according to INEEP, would mean reducing billions in social investments and compromising the country’s future in an energy transition scenario.
In addition to the financial aspect, the sharing regime allows Brazil to maintain control over one of the largest oil reserves in the world.
This state coordination is considered essential for ensuring that exploration aligns with national interests and sustainable development goals.
The Defense of Expanding the Model
INEEP not only advocates for the maintenance of the sharing regime but also its expansion to new strategic frontiers, such as the Equatorial Margin and areas beyond the 200 nautical miles.
For experts, strengthening state coordination in the oil and gas sector is key to ensuring energy security and a qualified insertion in the global energy transition.
According to Francismar Ferreira, coordinator of INEEP research, abandoning the current model means “losing billions in resources that could finance social and technological policies, as well as reducing the country’s energy sovereignty in a context of geopolitical disputes.”
The debate over the pre-salt sharing regime involves not only billions in revenue but also the role of Petrobras and Brazil’s ability to define its energy policy sovereignly.
INEEP’s study indicates that changing the rules could mean losses for the Union and weaken the state-owned company at a critical moment for the sector.
Do you believe that Brazil should maintain the pre-salt sharing regime as a way to guarantee more resources and strengthen Petrobras, or do you think that the concession model would bring greater competitiveness to the sector? Leave your opinion in the comments; we want to hear from those closely following this debate.
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