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From Supporting Role to Leading Actor: Corn Ethanol Now Controls 20% of the Market, Continues to Grow, and Catches Petrobras’s Attention

Escrito por Caio Aviz
Publicado em 18/09/2025 às 18:12
Etanol de milho em laboratório com espigas ao fundo, simbolizando a produção de biocombustível no Brasil
Produção de etanol de milho cresce 33% ao ano e já representa 20% do mercado nacional de biocombustíveis
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Accelerated Production Transforms Corn Ethanol Into Key Piece Of Energy Matrix And Places Inpasa And FS In Sector Leadership.

A structural change in the biofuels sector has consolidated corn ethanol as a highlight in Brazil. Currently, it accounts for 20% of national production, with 7.5 billion liters in 2024, according to EPE (Energy Research Company).

Meanwhile, cane ethanol production has remained stagnant for ten years, but on the flip side, corn has been growing at an average rate of 33% per year since 2020. Therefore, official projections indicate that within ten years, its share will exceed 30%, marking a turning point in the energy sector.

Inpasa and FS Consolidate Absolute Leadership

In 2024, Inpasa surpassed Raízen and became the largest ethanol producer in Brazil, with 3.7 billion liters. Meanwhile, Raízen, which produces from cane, reached 3.1 billion in the same year.

The history of Inpasa began in 2007, in Paraguay, under the name Industria Paraguaya de Alcoholes S.A.. Later, in 2019, the company opened its first Brazilian plant in Sinop (MT). In 2024, the company recorded R$ 13.6 billion in net revenue, a growth of 23% compared to 2023. According to estimates from Moody’s, the net margin is 18%, which represents a profit close to R$ 2.4 billion.

Moreover, the founder José Odvar Lopes expanded his operations in distribution, acquiring 3% of Vibra Energia, a stake valued at R$ 800 million, according to Brazil Journal.

On the other hand, FS, controlled by the American Summit (Fueling Sustainability), was founded in 2017 as the first company 100% dedicated to corn. In the first three years of operation, the company already reached 1 billion liters. In 2024, it achieved 2.4 billion liters, with revenue of R$ 10.7 billion and a net profit of R$ 937 million.

Together, Inpasa and FS account for 80% of corn ethanol production in Brazil, reinforcing the dominance of both companies in the market.

Petrobras Evaluates Return To The Sector

Petrobras had exited the ethanol sector in 2018, ending its participation in companies such as São Martinho, where it held 6.5%. However, at the end of 2024, President Magda Chambriard announced the intention to resume investments.

According to a report by Bloomberg, published on July 10, 2024, the state-owned company is negotiating minority joint ventures specifically with Inpasa and FS. Therefore, the goal is to reinforce its presence in fuels that compete with gasoline, without getting involved in sugar production.

Lower Costs And Valuable Byproducts

The difference with corn lies in the costs. According to a report from BTG, the average production cost in the 2024/2025 harvest was R$ 1.88 per liter, compared to R$ 2.36 for cane ethanol. Thus, the direct savings is 20%.

Additionally, corn production generates strategic byproducts that further enhance competitiveness:

  • DDG (Dry Distillers Grains), rich in protein, used as animal feed. BRF uses this input at its unit in Lucas do Rio Verde (MT).
  • Corn Oil, intended for biodiesel production, which broadens revenue diversification.

With these co-products, the final cost of corn ethanol can be up to 40% lower than that of cane, which further strengthens its position in the market.

Integration With Soy And Expansion Of The Second Crop

The cultivation of soy in the Midwest occurs in spring and summer, and the second crop, called “safrinha” corn, takes place in autumn and winter. Thanks to the growth of ethanol, there is today a stable demand for this production, creating a virtuous productive cycle.

Currently, the plants consume 15% of the national corn production, with one-third returning to the food chain in the form of DDG.

Additionally, since August 2024, gasoline now contains 30% ethanol in the blend, up from 27% previously. Therefore, discussions about increasing the percentage to 35% further reinforce future demand.

Regulatory Framework And Internal Competition

Although corn ethanol is growing rapidly, cane still has a significant space. According to Unica (Union of the Sugarcane Industry), between 2011 and 2019, the mills allocated on average 55.6% of their production to ethanol and 44.4% to sugar.

Between 2020 and 2025, the proportion increased to 51.2% for ethanol and 48.8% for sugar, indicating a greater focus on the sugar market. Since Petrobras does not operate in the sugar sector, corn ethanol appears to be a natural segment for its reintegration plans.

The Future Of Corn Ethanol

The advancement of corn ethanol in Brazil demonstrates how efficiency, reduced costs, and integration with the agricultural chain consolidate this biofuel as a national energy pillar.

With the interest from Petrobras and the leadership of Inpasa and FS, the sector projects accelerated expansion. The challenge will be to balance prices, sustainability, and competitiveness, without overlooking the historical relevance of cane.

What do you think should be the priority for Brazil: to rapidly expand corn ethanol production to consolidate global leadership or to seek sustainable balance between cane and corn to strengthen the energy matrix?

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Caio Aviz

Escrevo sobre o mercado offshore, petróleo e gás, vagas de emprego, energias renováveis, mineração, economia, inovação e curiosidades, tecnologia, geopolítica, governo, entre outros temas. Buscando sempre atualizações diárias e assuntos relevantes, exponho um conteúdo rico, considerável e significativo. Para sugestões de pauta e feedbacks, faça contato no e-mail: avizzcaio12@gmail.com.

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