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International Conflict Pressures Energy Market And Forces Diesel Adjustment In Brazil, While Government Tries To Contain Impact On Consumer With Tax Reduction And Subsidy
The price of diesel has returned to the center of economic debate in Brazil. Petrobras announced an adjustment in the fuel sold to distributors. The change comes after a significant rise in oil prices in the international market.
The information was reported by g1, which detailed the impact of the conflict in the Middle East on the global energy market. The escalation of the war has raised the price of a barrel of oil and pressured fuel production costs.
With the adjustment, Petrobras began to sell diesel A for R$ 3.65 per liter to distributors. The increase represents R$ 0.38 per liter compared to the previous price.
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Despite this, the impact at the pumps may be lesser. The federal government announced measures to reduce the final price paid by consumers.
Moreover, Petrobras had kept the price of diesel unchanged for months. The last change occurred in May 2025.
Global Oil Price Rise Pressures Diesel Cost
The war in the Middle East triggered a strong reaction in the global oil market. Investors reacted quickly to the increased tensions in the region.
Before the conflict, the price of a barrel of oil was around US$ 60. After the escalation of the war, the price exceeded US$ 100.
This surge raised production costs for fuels in several countries. As a consequence, refineries began to pay more for the raw material.
Therefore, the diesel adjustment in Brazil became practically inevitable. Oil remains the main input for producing derivatives like diesel and gasoline.
Even so, Petrobras highlights an important point. When analyzing a longer period, the price of diesel still shows an accumulated decline.
According to the company, since December 2022, the diesel A sold to distributors has decreased by R$ 0.84 per liter. This figure represents a reduction of 29.6%, considering the inflation of the period.
Government Announces Measures To Reduce Impact On Fuel
To mitigate the effects of the increase, the federal government announced a series of economic measures. President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) signed the actions.
The first measure eliminates the rates of PIS/Cofins on diesel. This decision reduces the price of fuel by R$ 0.32 per liter.
Additionally, the government created a subsidy for diesel producers and importers. The benefit will also be R$ 0.32 per liter.
The package also includes the taxation of oil exports. The goal is to stimulate refining in Brazil and ensure internal supply.
Another change requires fuel stations to clearly inform the reduction of taxes. This way, consumers will better understand the price formation.
Experts Analyze Impact Of Adjustment
Economists assess that the diesel increase reduces some of the effects of the government’s measures.
The economist Carlos Thadeu, an inflation and commodities specialist from BGC Liquidez, analyzed the scenario.
According to him, the adjustment announced by Petrobras practically offsets the tax reductions.
“Basically, it nearly negates the effect of the decrease from the measures announced yesterday by the federal government,” he stated.
He also highlighted the impact on inflation. For the specialist, the combined effect of the measures and the adjustment tends to balance out in the IPCA.
How Diesel Price Is Formed At Gas Stations
Many consumers believe that Petrobras determines the final price of diesel. In practice, various factors influence the value at the pumps.
Among the main factors are:
- costs and margins of distributors and resellers
- federal taxes such as Cide, PIS/Pasep and Cofins
- state ICMS, which varies according to the state
- mandatory mix of biodiesel
In Brazil, gas stations sell the so-called diesel B. This fuel contains 85% diesel A and 15% biodiesel.
Therefore, the adjustment of R$ 0.38 on diesel A generates an impact of about R$ 0.32 on diesel B sold at the stations.
After the change, Petrobras’s average share of the final price of diesel is R$ 3.10 per liter.
Another detail stands out. Petrobras had reduced the price of diesel on 06/05/2025, which was 311 days ago.
The last previous increase occurred on 01/02/2025, meaning it has been more than 400 days.
Subsidy For Diesel May Reduce Impact
Petrobras also announced its participation in the economic subsidy program for diesel.
The Company’s Board of Directors approved participation in the program, created by Provisional Measure No. 1,340 of 12/03/2026.
The initiative provides for a payment of R$ 0.32 per liter to participating companies.
Still, the program depends on regulation. The National Agency of Petroleum, Natural Gas and Biofuels (ANP) needs to define the operational criteria.
According to Petrobras, the combined effect of the adjustment and the subsidy may reach R$ 0.70 per liter.
However, the tax reduction measures should alleviate part of this impact for consumers.
Do you believe that the government’s measures will be sufficient to prevent the price of diesel from rising even further at gas stations?
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