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Itaú BBA Revises Projections with Oil at US$ 60 and Reaffirms PRIO as Favorite While Adjusting Brava Energia and PetroReconcavo.
The Itaú BBA has revised its estimates for the oil and gas sector and updated, on Wednesday (10), the recommendations for PRIO, Brava Energia and PetroReconcavo, after reducing the long-term projection for the price of oil.
The assessment, released in a report, explains what changes for each company, why the bank sees potential for appreciation, and how the new assumptions influence the performance of independent producers.
The analyses reaffirm PRIO as a standout in the segment.
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According to the bank, the changes were driven by the need to adjust future scenarios and anticipate results in a more challenging global environment.
Thus, Itaú BBA believes that even with pressure on international prices, some oil companies continue to have solid fundamentals, especially those with greater operational efficiency and lower sensitivity to market fluctuations.
The evaluations were based on the closing prices from last Wednesday (10).
PRIO Remains Itaú BBA’s Top Choice
PRIO remains the bank’s top buy recommendation among independent oil companies.
The bank reduced the target price from R$ 62 for 2025 to R$ 50 by the end of 2026.
PRIO’s production forecast is 187 thousand barrels per day in 2026, 204 thousand barrels in 2027, and 200 thousand barrels in 2028.
The estimates consider relevant milestones, such as the first oil from Wahoo in April 2026 and the completion of the remaining acquisition of Peregrino in June of the same year.
Even with the new global scenario, PRIO is expected to continue generating cash robustly.
According to the bank, “This supports our buy recommendation for the company at this time.”
Brava Energia Maintains Buy Recommendation Despite Challenges
Brava Energia also appears with a buy recommendation, although it has suffered a reduction in target price from R$ 28 at the end of 2025 to R$ 17.
Nonetheless, Itaú BBA emphasizes that the company has made significant operational advances.
Production from Brava Energia is expected to reach 89 kboed in 2026 and 95 kboed in 2027.
In the third quarter, the company recorded 92 kboed, showing a significant improvement in offshore efficiency. Among the highlights, the bank cites the reduction in lifting costs — the cost to extract each barrel — and advancements in liability management.
Due to the limited pace of production expansion until the end of drilling campaigns and the reduction of onshore investments.
Nevertheless, the bank believes there is strong cash generation potential in the medium term, supporting the recommendation.
“Still, we acknowledge that the short term poses challenges, especially in a scenario of lower oil prices,” the report states.
PetroReconcavo Receives Neutral Recommendation and More Conservative Projection
Among the three companies evaluated, PetroReconcavo was the only one to receive a neutral recommendation from Itaú BBA. The target price, previously projected at R$ 17 by the end of 2025, has now been revised to R$ 13 by the end of 2026.
The institution also updated its production expectations, estimating 27 kboed in 2026, 26 kboed in 2027, and 27 kboed in 2028.
The revision reflects a more cautious outlook on the company’s growth, especially in the Bahia asset, which has faced operational challenges.
According to the analysts, “Limited visibility on short-term production growth, combined with the pace of investment execution.”
Lower Projection for Oil Price Alters Sector Perspectives
The change in the projection for the price of oil made by Itaú BBA — from US$ 65 to US$ 60 per barrel — directly impacts the profitability estimates of oil and gas producers.
The revision forces companies to operate with lower margins, while also reinforcing the importance of operational efficiency.
Even in this scenario, the bank sees room for appreciation of the stocks of the three oil companies analyzed, albeit in different magnitudes.
PRIO stands out for its resilience; Brava Energia, for its adjustment capabilities and efficiency; and PetroReconcavo, for the need for caution in the face of production uncertainties.
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