In the third quarter of 2021, demand for gasoline should be 190 barrels per day lower than in the same period of 2019, the pre-pandemic year

The Oil Market Forecast Report by S&P Global Platts Analytics for Latin America points out that the retraction in mobility is still a challenge for the recovery of demand for gasoline in the countries of the region in the short term. The variants of COVID-19 and the still relatively low vaccination rates are factors that impact mobility and prevent the demand for fuel from reaching the levels of 2019, the pre-pandemic year.

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According to S&P Global Platts Analytics, a leading supplier of information and prices for commodity and energy markets, in the third quarter of 2021, the demand for gasoline in Latin America should be 285 thousand more barrels a day compared to 2020, but 190 thousand barrels a day lower than the same period of 2019. For the fourth quarter, the demand is still to continue below the pre-pandendic levels at about 130. barrels a day.

Demand for gasoline in Brazil

In Brazil, adverse weather conditions limited the sugarcane harvest this season, making “C” gasoline (which has 27% ethanol) a more competitive fuel for drivers compared to ethanol itself.

According to the report, in the first half of 2021, sales of “C” gasoline were 50 barrels per day higher than in 2020, but still 25 barrels per day below the same period in 2019.

The report also shows that, in the third quarter of 2021, only diesel demand is expected to exceed 2019 figures. This is due to increased industrial production, economic growth, retail sales and also due to cargo transportation. The projection is that, in the period, the demand for the fuel is 20 thousand barrels per day higher.

About S&P Global Platts – The leading independent provider of information and benchmark prices for the commodities and energy markets, S&P Global Platts has clients in more than 150 countries who rely on the company's expertise in news, pricing and analysis to bring greater transparency and efficiency to markets. S&P Global Platts coverage includes oil and gas, energy, petrochemicals, metals, agriculture and shipping. A S&P Global Platts is a division of S&P Global (NYSE: SPGI), providing essential intelligence for individuals, businesses and governments to make confident decisions.

Oil evaporates under strong pressure from sellers reaching $66 a barrel

Crude oil evaporated below $66 a barrel on Thursday, its lowest level since May, weighed down by concerns about weaker demand from rising COVID-19 cases, a stronger US dollar and a surprise rise in US gasoline inventories. In Brazil, Petrobras is putting pressure on gasoline prices to drop, which on the 12th suffered yet another 3,3% readjustment.

After five sessions of bearish trading on ICE Europe, oil evaporates under strong pressure from sellers unloading positions from October, the driver contract.

Petrobras is pressured to lower the price of gasoline with the drop in the value of oil and ethanol gains strength with parity above 70%

In this circumstance, the market's expectations of a reduction in gasoline prices fall on Petrobras, after the 3,3% increase on August 12th, and turn on the alert for ethanol.

Even if today's drop may be punctual, the fall is strong to return above US$ 70 a barrel in the next sessions, not least because the alert with the advance of Covid should continue to give space for the stress of speculators with derivatives.

Hydrated ethanol came from two strong rises in the plants in the last two weeks and was already above 70% parity with the competing fuel.