Survey shows sharp drop in world demand for oil and reveals impacts on revenues in the country, states and municipalities

Falling demand for oil in the world and melting international prices, the country's revenue from royalties and special participations has suffered a sharp drop in recent months. The drop is an additional shock to the revenues of the Union and governments of producing states and municipalities in 2020, whose accounts are also pressured by the prospect of lower economic growth and additional spending to face the Covid-19 pandemic.

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According to the G1, a survey carried out by the Brazilian Center for Infrastructure (CBIE), based on data from the National Agency of Petroleum, Natural Gas and Biofuels (ANP), shows that revenue from royalties fell 30,8% in May, compared to April. In the annual comparison, the retraction was even greater, 35%.

The last data available regarding special participations are from the 1st quarter, when the amount collected for public coffers fell 23,5% compared to the same period of 2019.

Faced with the new oil barrel price and production scenario in Brazil, the CBIE estimates that revenue from royalties and special participations will shrink by more than 20% in 2020. The consultancy projects a total revenue for the year of R$ 43,55 billion, against the R$ 55,95 billion collected last year. That is, R$ 12,4 billion less.

The CBIE projection takes into account an average price of US$ 38 per barrel of oil in the year (40,9% decrease compared to 2019), an average exchange rate of R$ 5,20 and an oil production at the same level as in 2019 (below 3 million barrels of oil per day).

The ANP, on the other hand, estimates that collections will shrink by around R$ 11 billion this year. The agency's current estimate is for a total value of BRL 45,1 billion in 2020.