The price at which the Refinaria Lubrificantes e Derivados do Nordeste, Lubnor, was sold by Petrobras does not correspond to its real value

The value passed by Petrobras to for sale of the Lubnor refinery, in Ceará, represents little more than half, about 55%, of the refinery's real price, according to calculations made by analysts from Ineep (Institute for Strategic Studies of Petroleum, Natural Gas and Biofuels). Also according to the study carried out, the Lubnor refinery is worth at least US$ 62 million, while the value negotiated by Petrobras is US$ 34 million.

Petrobras – which has an open public notice for contracting maintenance services – made public, at the end of the afternoon of this Wednesday, the 25th, that it signed a contract with the company Grepar Participações for the sale of the Lubnor refinery. The company Grepar has contributions from the companies Grecor Investimentos em Participações Societárias Ltda., Greca Distribuidora de Asfaltos Ltda. and Holding GV Participações SA

The study carried out by Ineep shows two base scenarios and declares an exchange floor of around US$ 5,08 and a maximum of US$ 5,70, range chosen due to the high exchange rate inconstancy of the Brazilian economy. Based on the two scenarios outlined by Ineep and dollar prices, the research concludes that the Lubnor refinery could be priced between US$ 62 million and US$ 70 million.

Calculation made to predict the value of Petrobras' Lubnor refinery used the FCD method

The calculation base was made using the FCD method, Discounted Cash Flow, which is based on the value inserted in the cash flows, planning them for the future. From the result, the rate that reflects the business risk, capital expenses (application in fixed capital) and extra working shortages are reduced, according to Ineep in a note.

Bearing in mind that Petrobras does not provide exclusive information about each refinery, in order to estimate the profits and expenses of the Lubnor refinery, Ineep informed that it collected the data that were made available by Petrobras.

Furthermore, for the calculations made for Petrobras' Lubnor refinery, it was considered that future profit plans may vary depending on the arguments adopted for the value of oil produced by Petrobras, however, according to Ineep, "even taking into account variations”, no scenario can be observed in which the value of the asset was at the value negotiated for Lubnor by Petrobras”.

The Lubnor refinery has the capacity to process around 8 barrels daily and is one of the leaders in the country in the asphalt production sector, in addition to being the only representative in the country capable of produce lubricants naphthenics.

About Lubnor

The Petrobras Lubnor refinery, opened in 1966 and occupies a total area of ​​218 square meters, produces approximately 235 tons of asphalt per year and 73 cubic meters of naphthenic lubricants per year. In addition to being an asphalt producer, Lubnor also distributes asphalt to nine states in the North and Northeast regions. All the oil used by Lubnor is of the ultra-heavy type, that is, 85% comes from Espírito Santo and the other 15% from Ceará. Of all the oil produced, 62% of its volume is sent to produce asphalt, supplying all states in the Northeast, and around 16% is invested in the production of naphthenic lubricants.
Two port structures are used by the refinery, the Port of Mucuripe located in Fortaleza, and the Pecém Terminal in the region of São Gonçalo do Amarante.

The refinery has a total area of ​​0,4 km² and has three more units, the Lubricant Unit – ULUB, the Natural Gas Processing Unit – UPGN and the Vacuum Unit – UVAC, with a total capacity of 8 thousand barrels per day.