The New Edition of EPE Presents Optimistic Projections for the Brazilian Fuel Market, Highlighting Increased Demand for Diesel, Ethanol, LPG, and Aviation Kerosene by 2026
The Energy Research Company (EPE) published, in October 2025, the latest edition of “Perspectives for the Brazilian Fuel Market in the Short Term,” according to a news article released.
The report projects a scenario of consistent growth in liquid fuel consumption, driven by a combination of economic and structural factors that strengthen domestic demand.
According to the document, a 1.9% increase is expected, equivalent to 3.0 billion liters in 2025, with a similar growth for 2026, totaling an additional 3.0 billion liters.
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These numbers reflect the economic recovery and advancements in the job market, supported by income transfer policies and investments from the New PAC, which should sustain the pace of expansion in the energy sector.
Growth Projections in Diesel Consumption and the Impact of Public Policies
Among the main highlights of the EPE publication is the increase in diesel consumption, an essential fuel for cargo transportation and the agricultural production chain.
The institution estimates that demand will reach around 72 billion liters by 2026.
This increase is directly related to the good performance of the grain harvest, logistical improvements, and the expansion of government programs aimed at infrastructure and agro-industrial production.
Public policies encouraging investment and family income strengthen consumption of products and services, which also impacts transportation and, consequently, national energy consumption.
Thus, the Brazilian fuel market gains additional momentum and maintains a strategic role in the country’s economic growth.
Expansion of Corn Ethanol and Strengthening of Biofuels
EPE’s forecasts indicate a continued advancement of Otto cycle fuels, with a focus on ethanol, which continues to benefit from a positive environment in the agricultural and industrial sectors.
The report points to good expectations for the 2025/26 sugarcane harvest and reinforces the importance of the growth of corn ethanol, which is being consolidated as an efficient and sustainable alternative.
Since August 1, the anhydrous content in common gasoline C has been adjusted to 30%, a measure that increases the use of biofuels and reduces dependence on petroleum derivatives.
This movement confirms the country’s alignment with energy transition and sustainability goals, reinforcing the leading role of the Brazilian fuel market in the global clean energy landscape.
Brazilian Fuel Market: Advances in LPG Consumption and Efficiency in the Aviation Sector
The report also highlights the positive behavior of LPG consumption, an essential product in the Brazilian domestic energy matrix.
The projections indicate continuous growth, driven by income transfer social programs and market expansion opportunities.
In the aviation sector, EPE observes a gradual recovery, with moderate growth in aviation kerosene (QAV) consumption in 2026, driven by energy and operational efficiency gains.
These trends reinforce the commitment of companies and the government to modernize the energy sector, increasing competitiveness and the security of national supply.
The data presented in the October 2025 edition highlight EPE’s strategic role in the analysis and planning of the sector.
To read the full content of the publication, just access the complete edition of “Perspectives for the Brazilian Fuel Market in the Short Term,” available on the institution’s official website.

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