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With Low Liquidity, DI Rates Reflect Market Caution Regarding Fiscal Deficit and IPCA Inflation Projections.
The rates of DIs ended Monday (29) close to stability, reflecting a low liquidity environment typical of the end of the year, and the absence of major triggers in both the domestic and foreign markets.
The movement occurred amid the release of relevant data concerning fiscal deficit, expectations for IPCA inflation, and the behavior of U.S. Treasuries, which helped guide investors’ decisions.
Right at the beginning of the session, future interest rates showed little volatility.
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The DI maturing in January 2028 ended the day at 13.18%, slightly above the previous adjustment of 13.16%.
The contract for January 2035 marked 13.64%, practically in line with the 13.65% observed in the previous session.
Therefore, even with reduced trading, the market remained cautious and avoided more drastic movements.
DI Rates Reflect End-of-Year Scenario
The behavior of DI rates was directly linked to the slower pace of negotiations.
With investors adjusting their positions and reducing exposure before the year’s end, the curve of future interest rates remained practically lateralized.
Still, analysts emphasize that stability does not mean a lack of concern.
On the contrary, the market remains attentive to fiscal and inflationary fundamentals, which continue to be the main pricing vectors for DI contracts throughout 2025.
Fiscal Deficit Higher Than Expected Comes Into Focus
Despite the calm in prices, the economic agenda brought relevant information.
During the afternoon, the National Treasury reported that the central government recorded a primary fiscal deficit of R$ 20.172 billion in November.
The number came above market expectations, which forecast a deficit of around R$ 13.5 billion, according to a Reuters survey.
In a press conference after the report was released, the Treasury Secretary, Rogério Ceron, stated that the primary result for 2025 should be “closer to the center of the target than to the floor”.
The statement helped to contain a more negative reaction in future interest rates by signaling a commitment to the fiscal framework.
On the other hand, the data reinforced the perception that the balance of public accounts remains a structural challenge.
Thus, the fiscal deficit continues to be a central factor in forming expectations for the trajectory of DI rates in the medium and long term.
IPCA Inflation on a Deceleration Trajectory
Another relevant point for future interest rates came from the release of the Focus survey.
The survey showed that economists reduced their estimate for IPCA inflation in 2025 for the seventh consecutive week, from 4.33% to 4.32%.
Furthermore, the projection for 2026 also showed a decline for the sixth consecutive week, with the median falling to 4.05%, down from 4.06% the previous week.
These numbers reinforce the perception of a gradual deceleration in inflation, which tends to ease pressure on DI rates, especially at the longer ends of the curve.
Meanwhile, in the morning, the Getulio Vargas Foundation reported that the IGP-M fell by 0.01% in December, ending the year with a cumulative drop of 1.05%.
Although the index is not directly used by the Central Bank, it helps compose the broader inflation scenario monitored by the market.
Future Interest Rates Follow U.S. Treasuries
In the international environment, U.S. Treasuries exerted additional influence on domestic future interest rates.
The yields on American bonds declined throughout the day as investors awaited the release of the minutes from the last Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting, scheduled for this Tuesday (30).
At around 4:43 PM, the yield on the ten-year Treasury, a global reference for investment decisions, was down about two basis points to 4.116%.
This movement helped to limit upward pressure on DI rates, as the Brazilian curve tends to react to fluctuations in international interest rates.
Perspectives for DI Rates
As a result, the market ends the year maintaining a defensive posture.
The combination of a fiscal deficit higher than expected, a gradual deceleration in IPCA inflation, and the behavior of U.S. Treasuries will continue to determine the direction of future interest rates in the upcoming sessions.
Meanwhile, experts assess that the short-term trend is for continued stability, at least until new fiscal or inflation data, or clearer signals from American monetary policy bring greater volatility.
Thus, DI rates remain a sensitive barometer of the balance between fiscal risk, inflation, and the external scenario.
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