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In August, With the 50% Tariff by the U.S. on Brazilian Coffee, Sales to the American Market Plummeted While Colombia and Mexico Increased Purchases of the Product from Brazil. Exporters and Industry Deny Triangulation of the Raw Grain.
Brazil’s coffee exports to Colombia soared 578% in August, to 112,948 bags of 60 kg, while shipments to Mexico advanced 90%, reaching 251,166 bags. Conversely, the United States reduced purchases from Brazil by 46% in the month, following the implementation of the new 50% tariff on Brazilian goods, including coffee.
Germany took the lead among buyers during this period. The data comes from the monthly report from Cecafé and reports from Reuters and Bloomberg.
In total, Brazil exported 3.144 million bags of all types of coffee in August, a decrease of 17.5% compared to the same month in 2024, even with a 12.7% rise in dollar revenue, driven by firmer external prices.
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The soluble coffee industry felt the impact: Brazilian shipments of this segment to the U.S. fell 59.9% in August. Industry entities warn that the restructuring of routes and contracts could pressure costs and prices for consumers in the coming months.
The price scenario already reflects the new situation. Brazilian associations in the sector indicate that the rise in international prices and the increase in the cost of the physical grain could lead to a retail price increase in Brazil, should the trend persist.
Why Did Colombia Buy So Much Coffee from Brazil?
Experts from Cecafé and the industry point to a movement of internal substitution in Colombia and Mexico. With Brazilian coffee becoming more expensive for the American market due to the tariff, these countries expanded their own shipments to the U.S. and imported from Brazil to supply domestic consumption, without interrupting their external sales. In other words, they buy from Brazil to ensure enough coffee at home while taking advantage of the pricing and tariff opportunities in the American market.
This rearrangement is facilitated by the profile of demand. Colombia is a reference for arabica and needs to turn to robusta/conilon to create blends and for soluble coffee, a niche in which Brazil is competitive. Mexico follows a similar logic, with industry focused on specific coffee profiles. This mix helps explain why Colombia and Mexico rank among the largest buyers from Brazil precisely in the month when the hefty tariff came into effect.
There is also a relevant tariff element. Technical publications in the U.S. report that, after April, the country began to impose a base tariff of 10% for most origins, with specific rates by country. In August, Brazil’s rate rose to 50%, while Colombia remained at 10%, and Mexico retained exemptions under USMCA rules for certain coffees. This difference enhances the competitiveness of Colombians in the American market.
Triangulation or Substitution? What the Sector Says
The hypothesis of “triangulation” of raw grain — re-exporting Brazilian coffee through third parties to circumvent the tariff — has been dismissed by industry leaders. The president of Cecafé, Marcio Ferreira, and industry leaders state that such a practice would be easily detected by American authorities due to documentary trails and the quality standards of the product. In other words, it is not considered a viable solution for the market.
Another discussion is different: processing the coffee within Colombia or Mexico and exporting the processed product. In this case, the trade follows its own rules and is not confused with the re-export of raw grain. Analysts suggest that part of the recent adjustment may stem from greater local processing to cater to niches like soluble and certain espresso blends.
In practice, August showed a redistribution of flows. The U.S. reduced purchases from Brazil with the implementation of the 50% tariff on August 6, 2025, and American buyers postponed contracts in anticipation of new definitions. Meanwhile, Germany led acquisitions and Mexico and Colombia absorbed part of the Brazilian volume.
And you, what do you think? Did Colombia simply take advantage of the competitive edge and protect its domestic market, or is there a risk of distortion in the rules of the game when neighboring countries expand imports amid a tariff crisis? Leave your comment, tell us if you see benefits or harms for Brazil in this new coffee geography.
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Uma pessoa reagiu a isso.