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Developed by the Central Bank in partnership with the ministries of Cities and Finance, the new savings model promises to release up to R$ 20 billion for housing credit this year and double the financing potential by 2027, redesigning housing policy and banks’ access to resources from the savings account
The new savings model that the government is set to announce later this week could change the operation of housing credit in Brazil. The proposal, orchestrated by the Central Bank in partnership with the ministries of Finance and Cities, aims to release about R$ 20 billion into the economy as soon as 2025 by loosening part of the resources that are currently held as mandatory reserves.
According to a report from O Globo, in practice, the model creates a direct incentive for banks to increase the supply of housing financing: for every real granted in housing credit, institutions gain the right to use the same amount from savings freely for up to five years. This change alters the mandatory directionality of savings account resources and could reshape the housing market in the coming months.
How The New Savings Model Works
Currently, 65% of savings resources must be applied to housing credit, while 20% remain tied up in the Central Bank and 15% are available for free use by banks.
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The new rule creates a layer of flexibility, allowing part of the mandatory reserves (up to 5 percentage points) to be released for banks that increase housing credit.
As a result, the mandatory reserve requirement would drop from 20% to 15%, and banks participating in the program would gain extra liquidity.
The mechanism will be tested until the end of 2026, with full implementation starting in 2027.
The immediate potential is to release up to R$ 37.5 billion, depending on the participation of financial institutions, although the more conservative estimate is R$ 20 billion already in this first year.
Expected Effect on Credit and Interest Rates
The Central Bank’s logic is that, by offering free resources as a reward, banks will feel encouraged to grant more housing financing.
Housing credit is expected to grow and interest rates may decline, as the gains from free operations could offset lower margins in the housing sector.
The model also generates competition among institutions, especially since Caixa Econômica Federal, the market leader, has already exhausted a good portion of its directed resources and should seize the opportunity to expand its portfolio.
The effect, in the short term, is a possible resumption of concessions during a time of credit cooling and still high rates in the market.
Impact on Banks and Homebuyers
For banks, the new model means greater freedom of application and better liquidity management.
In practice, they are now able to use part of the money that was previously immobilized in the Central Bank in credit operations or more profitable investments.
For those looking to buy their own home, the impact could come in the form of lower interest rates and more accessible terms.
The government expects that competition for new contracts will reduce the average cost of operations within the Housing Financial System (SFH), aimed at properties up to R$ 1.5 million and interest rates limited to 12% plus TR.
According to internal estimates, the demand for housing credit could jump from R$ 90 billion to R$ 200 billion in two years, if the model is fully adopted.
This would double the financing capacity with savings resources, in a scenario of retraction in collections and increased housing demand.
The Role of the Central Bank and Political Alignment
The proposal was designed by the Central Bank in conjunction with Caixa and the ministries of Cities and Finance.
The official announcement will be made by President Lula, with direct support from Minister Jader Filho, who advocates the measure as “a technical adjustment that unlocks housing and gives breathing room to the real economy”.
The plan arrives at a delicate moment. The monetary authority is trying to contain inflationary pressures, while the government seeks to boost credit and the construction sector before the municipal elections.
The test of the model will therefore function as a balance between monetary policy and economic stimulus, calibrated by the gradual release of mandatory reserves.
Risks and Challenges of the New Model
Despite the potential for expansion, the model brings risks. The increase in liquidity could pressure inflation and the Selic rate, if free credit advances at an accelerated pace.
There is also a dependence on the banks’ appetite, which will only release resources if they see adequate profitability.
Another challenge is the behavior of the savings account itself.
With investments migrating to more profitable funds, the available balance in the savings account has been shrinking, which requires more dynamic models to sustain housing credit.
Central Bank technicians believe that the right incentive can reverse this trend by generating enough credit volume to maintain savings as a pillar of housing financing.
What May Change from 2027
If the test is successful, the new savings model will be permanently incorporated into the financial system starting in 2027.
In this scenario, the release of mandatory reserves would be permanent, and banks would have a mechanism for automatic rotation: for each new housing credit granted, new free resources would be enabled.
The expected result is a more stable cycle of housing credit supply, with less dependence on one-off government interventions and greater predictability for the market.
In practice, housing credit would be driven by banking efficiency, not just by regulatory requirements.
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