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While China Drives Global Natural Gas Consumption to Decarbonize Its Matrix, Brazil Faces Infrastructure Challenges to Integrate the Input into an Already Clean Sources Dominated Scenario.
The rising demand for energy and the pressure for decarbonization place natural gas in a strategic global position. It can act as a source of stability and complement to renewables. However, its role varies drastically across countries. A report by the International Energy Agency (IEA) shows that while China leads the expansion, Brazil deals with infrastructure and supply complexities to harness its potential.
Global Demand on the Rise: Natural Gas Gains Relevance
Natural gas is solidifying as a pillar of the global energy sector. According to the IEA’s Global Energy Review 2025 (GER), global consumption of the input grew by 2.7% in 2024. This advance surpassed pre-pandemic levels. Asia accounted for 40% of this growth, with China leading the way.
Investments reflect this trend. About 80,000 kilometers of pipelines and over a hundred new Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) import and export terminals are under construction. These figures signal that, even with the expansion of renewables, natural gas will maintain its relevance in the coming decades.
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China: The Engine of Expansion to Replace Coal
China is currently the largest engine of growth in demand for natural gas. The country recorded an increase of over 7% in consumption, adding 30 billion cubic meters to its demand. This movement is explained by a combination of economic growth, heatwaves, and public policies focused on replacing coal with cleaner sources.
To sustain this transition, China is investing heavily in infrastructure. The country is expanding its LNG terminal capacity, pipelines, and storage systems. At the same time, the Asian giant seeks to reduce external dependence with massive investments in renewable energy and storage technologies.
Brazil: Pre-Salt Potential Against Structural Bottlenecks
Brazil has a more complex scenario. The country holds significant associated gas reserves in the pre-salt, but faces structural bottlenecks. The lack of infrastructure for gathering, transportation, and distribution limits the use of the input. This, combined with a transitioning regulatory model, raises costs.
As a result, the price of natural gas in the national market is among the highest in the world. The country remains dependent on imports, which accounted for 28.63% of demand in 2023. In this context, LNG emerges as an alternative to supply isolated regions. Biogas, with significant potential for domestic production, also presents a viable option.
Distinct Strategies: The Role of Gas in Each Energy Matrix
The trajectory of natural gas is not linear and depends on each country’s matrix. In China, gas plays a clear role in decarbonization, replacing coal, which is far more polluting. Its application occurs in a highly complex industrial scenario.
In Brazil, the challenge is different. The Brazilian electricity matrix is already primarily renewable. Here, natural gas does not only compete with coal, but also with LPG, fuel oils, gasoline, ethanol, and diesel. The main challenge is to balance its use as a support for the transition without creating new dependencies that compromise supply.
Natural Gas: Transition Fuel or Pillar for the Future?
The major question in the sector is whether natural gas will act solely as a “transition fuel” or if it will maintain a central role for longer. It is seen as the cleanest fossil fuel and an abundant resource that supports intermittent renewable sources, such as solar and wind.
According to Leonardo Estrella, a researcher at Ineep, all indications suggest that the input will continue as an ally of renewables. It will serve both as a backup for seasonality and in combination with existing infrastructure. For China, gas is a bridge to a cleaner future. For Brazil, the challenge is how to integrate this resource intelligently into an already clean matrix, ensuring energy security for a continental and urban territory.
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