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Experts from JPMorgan and Bradesco BBI forecast a positive update in projections, with BBI also indicating an increase in dividends. Petrobras (PETR4) announced last Monday (17) that it set a production record in the third quarter, reaching 3.98 million barrels of oil equivalent per day. This figure represents a 7.8% increase compared to the previous quarter, driven by the start-up of new platforms in the pre-salt fields.
However, it is important to emphasize that this data is not directly comparable to the forecasts made by JPMorgan, as it includes not only Petrobras’ own production but also the production operated by its partners. Nevertheless, the bank believes that the growth of Petrobras’ exclusive production should remain around these same levels in the quarter.
Petrobras announced that it is revising its operated production projections for this year and that a new number will be disclosed on November 9, along with the financial results for the third quarter. This revision is necessary due to the positive performance recorded during the period.
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The increase in Petrobras’ own production is mainly due to the growth of the Almirante Barroso platforms, located in the Búzios field, and P-71, in the Itapu field, both situated in the pre-salt of the Santos Basin. In addition, the Anna Nery and Anita Garibaldi units, present in the Marlim and Voador fields in the Campos Basin, also contributed to these record results.
Another factor that positively influenced was the reduction in the number of maintenance shutdowns for the platforms during the period. This enabled a longer production time and contributed to the increase in the numbers achieved.
Given this scenario, experts recommend keeping an eye on the shares of Petrobras, as the company is showing solid performance and promising prospects for the future. Additionally, it is worth highlighting that the company has an attractive dividend payment policy, which may interest investors seeking returns.
Based on this data, the recommendation to buy Petrobras shares appears favorable, as the company is managing to increase its production and present positive results. It is important to note that the decision to invest in shares should be made with caution, taking into account market analysis and the profile of each investor.
Therefore, in light of this growth scenario and positive prospects, Petrobras stands out as an interesting option for investors seeking profitability and attractive dividends.
Petrobras recently announced a relevant fact, informing that it achieved a monthly record of operated production in September, reaching 4.1 million barrels of oil equivalent per day. This figure represents a 6.8% increase compared to August. Furthermore, the company also set a monthly record in operated production in the pre-salt, reaching 3.43 million barrels of oil equivalent per day in that layer.
These surprising results presented by Petrobras led the bank JPMorgan to point out an upward risk for its volume estimates in the second half of 2023. Considering a 7.8% growth in the company’s own production, JPMorgan estimates that this number could be 8.2% higher than expected, driven by the faster-than-expected advancement of the Almirante Barroso and P-71 platforms.
The bank’s analysis team celebrated these surprising operational results, which exceeded their forecasts and indicate a potential for growth in the production projection for the second half. Moreover, they are already taking into account the two new platforms in the pre-salt for the year 2024.
In light of these impressive numbers from the third quarter of 2023, JPMorgan believes it is likely that Petrobras’ production projection will be revised upward. This guidance revision is justified by the positive results presented and the potential for even greater growth of the company.
Bradesco BBI also commented on Petrobras’ net oil production in September, estimating it to be around 2.3 million barrels per day. This estimate indicates that there will be a significant upward revision in the production guidance, as the projection for 2024 was only 2.1 million barrels per day.
Considering the upcoming year, Bradesco BBI highlights that there will be depletion in some fields; however, Petrobras’ production exceeding expectations in the third quarter of 2023 shows that the company is on a good path to overcome these challenges and continue growing.
These promising results and the optimistic prospects of Petrobras regarding its future production have attracted investors’ interest. Many analysts are recommending the purchase of the company’s shares, considering its robust performance and potential for appreciation.
Given this favorable scenario, Petrobras’ dividends have also been quite attractive to investors. With the improvement in operational results and the possibility of an upward revision in the production guidance, it is expected that the company will distribute higher dividends to shareholders.
In summary, the record production and operated production numbers in the pre-salt presented by Petrobras in the third quarter of 2023 have generated optimism in the market. The banks JPMorgan and Bradesco BBI point to an even greater growth potential of the company, suggesting an upward revision in the production guidance and recommending the purchase of Petrobras shares. Additionally, the company’s dividends are also attractive to investors, who expect higher returns based on positive results and promising prospects of the company.
Another highlight in the stock market is Petrobras, which has been posting positive results and has received buy recommendations from analysts. With the expectation of an upward revision in the company’s production curve, the estimate is for an increase of at least 200 thousand barrels per day (bpd). This revision will also impact earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (Ebitda), which will need to be revised upward by about US$ 3.8 billion.
Based on Banco BBI’s projections, the Ebitda per barrel of Petrobras’ upstream area is around US$ 50/bbl, considering an estimated Brent crude oil price of US$ 78/bbl for 2024. Additionally, the consensus was for an oil production of 2.1 million bpd for the next year, according to the company’s guidance. With this data, the bank estimates an incremental dividend yield of 1.8% per year.
Banco BBI has an outperform recommendation for PETR4 shares, with a target price of R$ 38, while JPMorgan has a neutral recommendation for ADR PBR (American Depositary Receipts traded on the New York Stock Exchange), equivalent to PETR3, with a target price of US$ 14.50. These recommendations reflect analysts’ confidence in Petrobras’ future performance and the potential for appreciation of its shares.
In the market, PETR3 and PETR4 shares are showing positive performance, with an increase of about 2% in early afternoon trading this Tuesday. These results reflect investors’ optimism regarding the company’s prospects and confidence in its management.
In summary, Petrobras has stood out in the stock market and has received buy recommendations from analysts. With the expectation of an upward revision in the production curve and Ebitda, the company presents potential for an increase in dividends. PETR4 shares are recommended by Banco BBI, while PETR3 shares have a neutral recommendation from JPMorgan. The positive performance of the shares reflects investors’ confidence in the company and its future prospects.
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