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Third Reduction in 36 Days Reflects Drop in International Oil Prices. Understand the Impact for Consumers and Petrobras’ Pricing Policy.
Petrobras announced a new reduction in diesel prices. The cut is R$ 0.16 per liter (4.66%). The measure takes effect from this Tuesday, May 6, 2025. This is the third decrease in just over a month. The main reason is the drop in oil prices in the international market. However, the total pass-through at the pump is not guaranteed. Understand Petrobras’ announcement.
Third Reduction in 36 Days: The New Pricing Dynamics of Petrobras
This is the third cut in diesel prices in just 36 days. With the reduction of R$ 0.16, the average price of diesel A (pure) sold by Petrobras to distributors becomes R$ 3.27 per liter. It is important to note that the diesel sold at the pump (diesel B) contains 14% biodiesel.
Therefore, the reduction in the share of Petrobras in the final price of diesel B is slightly lower: R$ 0.14 per liter. Previous cuts occurred at the end of March and on April 17. Since December 2022, Petrobras has reduced diesel prices by R$ 1.22 per liter (27.2%). The gasoline price was not altered in this announcement.
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International Scenario: Why Are Oil Prices Falling?
Petrobras’ decision is linked to the sharp decline in oil prices in the global market. Brent and WTI prices recently fell below US$ 60 per barrel. Brent decreased by 16% in April 2025. Several factors contribute to this decline, including expectations of a global economic slowdown. OPEC+’s decisions to increase production also pressured prices. Trade tensions and price cuts by Saudi Arabia (Saudi Aramco) influenced the scenario.
Petrobras’ Pricing Policy: Between the Global Market and “Brazilian Calm”
Since May 2023, Petrobras no longer strictly follows the Import Parity Price (IPP). The current policy aims to “Brazilianize” prices. It takes into account the international market and exchange rates but also considers internal costs, competitors, and supply alternatives. The goal is to offer accessible prices and avoid excessive volatility.
However, the policy faces criticism for the lack of transparency in the calculation formula. Analysts consider the recent cuts “conservative,” suggesting that Petrobras could pass a greater international drop. The need to compete with importers ends up indirectly anchoring Petrobras‘ prices to international values.
From Refinery to Pump: Why Doesn’t the Cut Fully Reach Consumers?
The reduction at the refinery gets diluted by the time it reaches the station. Several factors influence this:
- Margins: Distributors and resale stations set their margins in a free market. The pass-through is not automatic.
- Biodiesel (B14): The diesel at the pump contains 14% biodiesel. The price of biodiesel has its own dynamics and can rise, nullifying part of Petrobras‘ cut in diesel A.
- Taxes: Federal taxes (PIS/COFINS, CIDE) and state taxes (ICMS) weigh heavily. The ICMS, for example, has been a fixed amount of R$ 1.12 per liter since February 2025. Since part of the taxes is fixed, the percentage reduction at the pump is always smaller than the percentage reduction at the refinery. The share of Petrobras represents about 45-50% of the final price.
What to Expect in the Coming Days with Petrobras’ Decision?
The reduction in diesel might relieve inflation. The IPCA-15 for April already showed a slight decline (-0.64%) in diesel price at the pump. Since diesel affects the transportation costs of almost everything, its drop helps contain overall inflation. However, the total impact takes time to appear in indices and final prices for consumers.
Abicom estimates a relief of R$ 0.13 per liter at the pump with this cut from Petrobras. The weekly survey from ANP will show the actual pass-through in the coming days (in the last week of April, diesel S10 was priced at R$ 6.19/liter). There is market expectation for a possible future cut in gasoline prices by Petrobras as well, since its prices are also above the international parity.
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