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Even With Oil Falling, Petrobras Soars on the Stock Exchange, Regains Position as Largest Company in Latin America, Becomes Target of Foreign Capital, Grows With the Fear of Artificial Intelligence, and Helps to Bring Ibovespa to Record Highs.
In recent weeks, Petrobras has concentrated a good part of the appetite of foreign capital that is leaving the United States and migrating to emerging markets, in a movement that favors energy and banking companies and penalizes technology businesses more exposed to the disruption of artificial intelligence. At the same time, Mercado Livre, which had been leading the Latin American ranking since August 2024, lost positions amid the perception that marketplaces and digital platforms can be directly attacked by autonomous AI agents.
Petrobras Returns to the Top of the Latin American Ranking
The return of Petrobras to the position of largest company in Latin America by market value is a direct result of a series of strong increases in shares, both on B3 and on the New York Stock Exchange, where PBR receipts are traded.
In the same movement, Itaú Unibanco takes the second place, while Mercado Livre drops to third.
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The government requests the Federal Revenue Service for a new system to automate the income tax declaration, reducing errors, time, and bureaucracy for millions of Brazilians.
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Pix in installments, international Pix, and contactless payment without internet: the Central Bank revealed the new features coming to the tool that is already used by almost every adult in Brazil.
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Mercado Livre has just started selling medications with delivery in up to three hours to your door, and this move could completely change the way Brazilians buy medicines on a daily basis.
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In Dubai, rising tensions from the war in the Middle East are causing super-rich individuals to leave the Gulf and direct their fortunes to a new financial refuge in Asia.
According to analyst Guilherme Ravach’s reading, the foreign buying flow has been concentrated precisely on Brazilian giants, with Petrobras and Itaú occupying the center of attention.
In January, the volume of investment from abroad alone surpassed the total for all of 2025, signaling a clear portfolio reallocation towards Brazil.
In practice, this means that Petrobras is once again a protagonist in a ranking that had been dominated by technology companies and digital platforms, in a scenario where commodities and banks were seen as “old economy” and were sidelined in global strategies.
Foreign Capital Leaves the USA and Targets Petrobras and Itaú
Behind this turnaround is a broader movement: a lot of money that was positioned in American stocks is migrating to emerging markets, and Brazil is one of the big beneficiaries. In search of diversification, more attractive relative prices, and sectors less threatened by radical disruptions from artificial intelligence, foreign managers are increasing their bets on energy and banks.
In this context, Petrobras and Itaú appear as the two main natural targets for global investors seeking relevant exposure to Brazil. They are liquid companies, with a significant weight in indices and the capacity to absorb large orders without distorting the market too much.
Meanwhile, the interest in Petrobras shares listed in New York is even greater than in shares traded on B3, with daily performance differences reinforcing international investors’ appetite for the company’s receipts.
Fear of Artificial Intelligence Becomes a Tailwind for Petrobras
One of the central points of Ravach’s analysis is the so-called “AI scare,” the fear of artificial intelligence. In several sectors, generative AI and autonomous agents present a direct threat to the business model.
This is especially true for software companies, digital marketing, content platforms, and marketplaces like Mercado Livre.
The logic is simple: autonomous AI agents can scour the internet alone, compare prices anywhere, choose the cheapest product or the fastest delivery, and finalize the purchase without depending on a large marketplace.
In this scenario, the weight of the brand diminishes, advertising loses influence, and the intermediation power of large portals is called into question.
At the same time, artificial intelligence tends to help companies like Petrobras, rather than destroy them.
It can optimize oil exploration, logistics, maintenance, and risk management, but it is unlikely to “end” the business of extracting, processing, and selling energy.
That is why, in this moment of fear and uncertainty, traditional base industries, especially those linked to commodities, are once again seen as a relatively safe harbor.
While some digital models need to reinvent themselves to survive AI, oil remains necessary, and the demand for energy continues to grow.
Petrobras as an Energy Company in an Increasingly Electric World
Another highlighted point is that Petrobras already sees itself as an energy company in a broad sense, not just as an oil company tied to a single type of fuel. Even in a scenario where oil ceases to be the “go-to” in mobility, the demand for energy continues to increase.
Data centers, telecommunications networks, electric vehicles, charging systems, petrochemicals, and a variety of other production chains will continue to require robust energy sources, whether through fossil fuels or alternatives that can coexist with Petrobras’ current portfolio.
Even if electric cars gain ground, it does not eliminate the need for plastics, chemicals, and derivatives produced from oil, nor does it solve the challenge of the global energy matrix alone.
Therefore, the market views favorably a large-scale player, already positioned, with strong cash flow and the ability to invest in energy transition gradually, without relying on high-risk bets.
Mercado Livre on the Defensive in a World of Autonomous Agents
While Petrobras rides the AI fear wave, Mercado Livre finds itself on the other side of the movement. Marketplace platforms are precisely at the center of the collision course with autonomous artificial intelligence agents, who will be able to buy directly from any site, without needing to go through a large intermediary.
Today, many small sellers depend on placing their product within these large marketplaces to gain visibility.
But AI is expected to make it much easier to build a personal website, manage logistics, integrate payment methods, and be found by autonomous agents searching for the best price and delivery time.
In this scenario, the firepower of a marketplace becomes less indispensable than it is today, advertising loses relative weight, and brand loyalty becomes less important than the efficiency of the algorithm that searches and negotiates on behalf of the consumer.
It is not that Mercado Livre will disappear, but the market is repricing the risk of business models that can be shortened by AI, while valuing companies with physical assets, heavy infrastructure, and more tangible barriers to entry, such as Petrobras and Itaú.
Ibovespa at Record Highs with Petrobras Leading the Gains
Amid this reshaping of sector preference, Petrobras has exceptional days of gains, helping Ibovespa to approach historical record levels, around 191 thousand points, above the previous peak of around 190.5 thousand.
In intraday trading, the chart shows stocks operating at the highest levels since the recent recovery, opening at one level and “playing at the top of the mountain” throughout most of the session. In parallel, the index is driven by Petrobras, Itaú, and other names in energy and banking, consolidating a value rally at a time when technology is struggling elsewhere.
For the analyst, the day “lives up to” the value investing strategy championed by investors like Warren Buffett, where traditional companies with solid profits and real assets are once again the stars of the portfolio after years when much of the money chased only growth and technology.
What This Movement With Petrobras Teaches the Investor
The return of Petrobras to the top of Latin America by market value is not just a symbolic trophy. It shows how the mood of the global market can change rapidly when the perception of technological risk increases, and how capital flows respond to concrete fears, in this case, the fear of artificial intelligence concerning certain business models.
For investors, there are some clear messages:
- Energy companies and banks are regaining a central role in global portfolios in Latin America.
- Digital models dependent on intermediation and advertising need to reinvent themselves in a world of autonomous AI agents.
- Foreign capital flows can flip an entire ranking in just a few months, raising or dropping companies according to the risk appetite and the dominant narrative of the moment.
At the center of all this, Petrobras emerges again as a symbol of “old economy” that benefits from a new technology, rather than being destroyed by it.
And you, looking at this scenario of fear of AI and the return of Petrobras to the top, do you think investors should take this opportunity to strengthen positions in energy and banks or does it still make sense to bet more heavily on technology companies like Mercado Livre?
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