Gasoline prices reflect the internal situation, while the global market impacts the cost of diesel.

The current gasoline price outlook, according to recent studies, appears to be strongly linked to domestic supply and demand dynamics. According to evaluations of Argus, current global market prices would not allow room for a decrease in prices.

Data collected by Argus, in partnership with fuel importers and international traders, indicate that the cost to import a load of gasoline is around R＄3/l at ports in the North and Northeast regions, taking into account port and storage costs. Meanwhile, the cost of gasoline at the port of Itaqui is expected to reach around R＄2,8/l soon.

Competition and alternatives shape Petrobras’ strategies

In line with the guidelines defined in May regarding its new pricing policy, the Petrobras reiterated its commitment to considering competition and alternatives present in the internal market. The oil giant is currently facing significant growth in the consumption of hydrated ethanol in Brazil, a factor that results in a decrease in demand for gasoline. Clear evidence of this trend was the growing exports promoted by Petrobras in September.

Diesel: rising price reflects international scenario

As for diesel, the increase of R＄0,25/l points to a scenario where there is a squeeze on both the domestic and global supply of this fuel. This price adjustment seems to be more in line with what is observed in the international market. To contextualize, in the port of Itaqui, the price defined by Petrobras should rise to R＄3,97/l, bringing it even closer to international values. According to evaluations by Argus, with data collected from importers and external traders, the cost of importing a load of diesel is around R＄4,07/l for products from Russia and R＄4,34/l for fuels from other sources.

Source: Amance Boutin, fuel expert at Argus.