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Does Performance at the BAFTA Awards Influence the Oscar? See What Experts Say About Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent, and the Academy of Cinema.
This Sunday, in London, the film The Secret Agent, starring Wagner Moura, competes in important categories at the BAFTA Awards, the main award ceremony for British cinema.
The ceremony takes place in the United Kingdom, while the race for the Oscar in the United States continues until the statuettes are handed out in Los Angeles on March 15.
The question driving the behind-the-scenes discussions is simple: can a victory in the UK influence the decision of the American Academy of Cinema?
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The answer, according to experts, is more complex than it seems. Although the BAFTA Awards increase international visibility, it is not considered a reliable thermometer for the Oscar.
This is because the voters and criteria for the two awards are distinct, both in composition and cultural identity.
In addition to The Secret Agent, other Brazilians are also present in the British competition.
Adolpho Veloso is nominated for cinematography in Dreams of Train, and Petra Costa appears for the documentary Apocalypse in the Tropics, both projects linked to Netflix.
BAFTA Awards Are Not a Thermometer for the Oscar
Despite the expectations, history shows that performance at the BAFTA Awards does not always translate into success at the Oscars.
Brazilian films have experienced opposite situations at the two awards.
In the past season, Still Here, by Walter Salles, won the first Oscar for Brazil, but did not replicate the same success at the British award.
In 1999, Central Station won the BAFTA Awards for Best Foreign Language Film, but did not take home the statuette from the American Academy of Cinema.
The same happened with City of God, which secured the BAFTA for Best Editing but left the Oscars empty-handed.
Therefore, history reinforces that decisions follow their own paths.
Wagner Moura and The Secret Agent Make a Strong Entry at the Oscars
On one hand, the BAFTA Awards may not determine the fate at the Oscars, but on the other, the American campaign for Wagner Moura and The Secret Agent is broader.
The feature film is not only appearing in Best International Feature Film but also competing for Best Picture, Best Ensemble Direction, and Best Actor.
This presence in multiple categories amplifies the film’s reach within the Academy of Cinema.
Furthermore, it highlights that the production has gained significant recognition among American voters.
Meanwhile, Petra Costa is not in the Oscar race this year, but Adolpho Veloso continues in the running.
The Weight of Identity in the Academy of Cinema
One of the factors explaining the differences between the BAFTA Awards and the Oscars is the profile of the voters.
Professor Nik Steffens from the University of Queensland analyzed about a thousand nominations and awards and identified clear patterns.
According to him, American actors have more than double the chances of winning the Oscar, while British actors present a similar favoritism at the BAFTA Awards.
“Both awards claim to celebrate the ‘best performance’.
But psychology shows us that ‘best’ is never understood in a social vacuum. It’s shaped by groups that make evaluations based on their sense of belonging to the world”, says Steffens.
He adds: “Our identity shapes what we value and what we consider exceptional.
Awards function as acts of collective celebration of who we are and who we want to be.”
In other words, the choice goes beyond technique. It involves cultural identification and belonging.
Structure and Voting: BAFTA Awards vs. Oscars
The differences are also structural. The Oscars operate by invitation: to join the American Academy of Cinema, one must have established experience and be nominated by active members.
Winners of the statuette are automatically added to the list of eligible members.
In the BAFTA Awards, the process is more open.
Film, TV, or games professionals can apply by paying a fee and proving their work in the field.
Critic Rodrigo Salem sums up this difference: “The intersection between the voting bodies of the BAFTA and Oscar is minimal. Being part of the BAFTA Academy is not very exclusive. You pay the fee, apply online, and that’s it.”
He also emphasizes that, in recent years, the Oscars have expanded their diversity.
“The Oscars have more Brazilians among their voters and a more diverse cultural identity. It’s no longer like it used to be, when it was just Americans with a few outsiders.”
Can BAFTA Awards Help in the Visibility of The Secret Agent?
Even if it’s not decisive, the BAFTA Awards can serve as a showcase.
For independent productions like The Secret Agent, the biggest challenge is often not garnering votes but ensuring that Academy members watch the film.
Adolpho Veloso explains: “It’s exposure, because once you win the BAFTA, more people who vote for the Oscar and haven’t seen your film can finally give it a chance.”
He concludes pragmatically: “It may not be a thermometer, but it’s a boost for the Oscar.”
BAFTA Awards Influence but Do Not Define the Oscar
In summary, the BAFTA Awards can enhance the international visibility of Wagner Moura and The Secret Agent, but they do not dictate the outcome at the Oscars.
The two awards operate with their own logics, both cultural and structural.
Therefore, even if the London Sunday ends without a trophy for the Brazilians, the race at the American Academy of Cinema remains open.
And during the awards season, every step—whether in London or Los Angeles—counts as part of a larger strategic campaign.
See more at: What is the BAFTA and What is Its Impact for Wagner Moura and ‘The Secret Agent’ at the Oscar – BBC News Brasil
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