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The Driver Shortage and Accelerated Aging of the Category Raise Alerts About Possible Impacts on Freight Transport and National Supply, According to Recent Analyses by Sector Experts.
The shortage of truck drivers is already starting to pressure freight transport and raises concerns about a potential logistical blackout in Brazil in the coming years, risking the supply of food, fuel, and medicine, with a potential impact on prices.
The diagnosis comes from Professor and Researcher De Leon Petta, who associates the scenario with the advance of the demographic crisis in the country and commented on the topic in a video on the Geopolítica Mundial channel on YouTube.
According to Petta, road transport, responsible for a large part of the circulation of goods in the national territory, depends on a workforce that is aging rapidly and losing professionals year after year.
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At the same time, the economy remains heavily dependent on roads: about 60% of the cargo transported in Brazil is carried by road transport, including grains from agribusiness, industrial products, and e-commerce orders.
Aging of Truck Drivers in Brazil
The data presented by the researcher indicate that the average age of Brazilian truck drivers is around 45 years, with a significant increase in the participation of older workers.
In 2013, approximately 15% of drivers were over 60 years old. By 2023, that proportion rose to around 29%.
The presence of young people in the profession remains low.
Surveys cited by Petta show that in 2024, only around 4% of drivers were under 30 years old, while more than 11% were already over 70.
For the researcher, the trend points to an increasing difficulty in replacing professionals who are nearing retirement.
According to him, “about 60% of truck drivers currently active are expected to retire by the next decade,” which, in his view, reinforces the possibility of a structural imbalance in the supply of licensed drivers.
Costs and Barriers to Entry in the Profession
Petta also highlights the costs of entering the profession as one of the factors that discourage new professionals.
To obtain a license in categories C, D, or E, necessary for driving trucks, the investment varies by state and can reach several thousand reais.
When the option is to work as an independent driver, the acquisition cost of a new or used heavy truck, which can exceed hundreds of thousands of reais, makes entry more difficult for those without financing or corporate support.
The researcher states that this set of factors limits the renewal of the category.
He also mentions that the activity can be seen as less attractive to young people due to long periods away from home, strict deadlines, and exhausting working conditions reported by drivers and industry organizations.
Road Conditions and Transport Insecurity
The conditions of Brazilian highways are cited as another sensitive point by workers and transport-related associations.
In many sections, there is a lack of rest areas with adequate facilities, such as clean restrooms, safe resting areas, and proper dining locations.
Crime is another factor cited by experts.
Security reports indicate that in 2023, more than 17,000 incidents of cargo theft were recorded in the country, with losses exceeding R$ 1.2 billion.
The majority of cases occur in states like São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro, as well as other logistics centers in the Southeast and South.
In 2024, incidents remained above the 10,000 mark.
Drivers report situations of robbery and express kidnappings, which, according to representative entities, contribute to the disinterest of new generations in the profession.
Reduction in Workforce and Growing Demand
While the category is losing professionals, the demand for road transport remains high.
Industry studies indicate that the number of drivers has fallen by about 20% between 2014 and 2024, from approximately 5.5 million to about 4.4 million active drivers.
In states with strong economic activity, such as São Paulo, surveys by sector institutions identify declines of over 30% in certain periods.
At the same time, agribusiness has continued to increase production, e-commerce has expanded deliveries, and industrial supply chains have maintained significant dependence on roads.
This imbalance is already causing, according to companies and associations, an increase in freight costs, difficulty in finding available drivers, and delays in cargo distribution.
Logistical Impacts and Economic Pressure
Petta states that transport is one of the central components of the Brazilian logistical cost, which historically occupies a significant share of the Gross Domestic Product.
When there is a shortage of drivers, companies tend to raise salaries and benefits to attract and retain professionals.
This movement, according to logistics experts, drives up operational costs and may result in increased final prices for food, fuels, and other consumer goods.
According to the researcher, it is “a chain effect that traverses the entire economy.
Academic institutions and business entities had already identified billions in losses due to inefficiencies in infrastructure and operational costs.
The lack of drivers, according to sector analysts, adds another layer of pressure to the system.
Lack of Truck Drivers in the International Scenario
The phenomenon, however, is not exclusive to Brazil.
The International Road Transport Union (IRU) pointed out in 2024 reports about 3.6 million unfilled truck driver positions in 36 countries that account for approximately 70% of the global GDP.
The entity describes the scenario as a structural labor crisis.
The average age of truck drivers in these countries is around 45 years, and only about 6.5% are under 25, indicating a difficulty in professional renewal.
The IRU projects an increase in the number of open positions in the coming years unless there are changes in training, capacity building, and improvement of working conditions.
How the US and Europe Are Trying to Reverse the Shortage
In an attempt to reduce the driver shortage, developed countries have implemented combined actions.
In the United States, companies have started offering hiring bonuses, broader health plans, and training programs, while the federal government relaxed the minimum age for interstate truck driving under safety requirements.
In the European Union, the minimum age to drive heavy vehicles has been reduced from 21 to 18 years, accompanied by specific certifications.
There have also been investments in rest areas with mandatory minimum standards.
Furthermore, automation technologies and autonomous vehicles have begun to be tested on a large scale, although experts argue that full adoption still depends on regulation, infrastructure, and implementation costs.
Brazilian Vulnerabilities in the Driver Crisis
According to Petta, Brazil faces the problem with more vulnerabilities than developed countries due to the combination of accelerated aging of the workforce, insufficient road infrastructure in various regions, and high crime rates.
The researcher claims that the country may face additional difficulties in incorporating autonomous vehicles due to conditions of signaling, road maintenance, and safety in certain areas.
For him, this type of technology tends to offer limited results in the short term.
Risks to Supply and Cargo Flow
Petta assesses that the shortage of truck drivers is already part of the daily life of companies in the sector.
“This crisis will not start in 2040 or 2050; it is already happening,” he states.
According to him, difficulties in hiring and increased workloads on active professionals are already being felt in several logistics corridors.
Experts consulted by sector entities point out that, unless there are coordinated actions involving the government, transport companies, shippers, and professional training institutions, the country may face recurring delays in cargo distribution, additional cost pressures, and risk of localized product shortages.
With an aging category, low entry of new drivers, and strong dependence on roads, what response can the country build to prevent the shortage of professionals from compromising the functioning of the economy?
Oi boa noite eu vim aqui dizer que não está faltando motorista,está faltando empresa qualificada pra preencher seu quadro de profissional, porque eu sou motorista vejo o que as empresas estão fazendo de errado pra preencher suas vagas,eles estão pedindo motorista com 6 meses de experiência me desculpa onde, que ele não tem conhecimento si quer de rodovia!
Matéria capciosa e com título errado. Pelo próprio conteúdo da matéria, não são os caminhoneiros que irão parar o Brasil, mas, a falta de mão obra qualificada e habilitada para ocupar as vagas em aberto, bem como as que irão ser abertas nos próximos anos.
Particularmente, acredito que precisamos investir em outros modais de transporte de mercadorias, como trens para movimentação de mercadorias em médias e longas distâncias e deixar as de curta distância para transporte rodoviário. O problema é quebrar o monopólio e cartel das montadoras de transporte pesado.
Existem vários fatores, que são baixos salários, muitas cobranças muitas das vezes as empresas não oferecem condições adequadas, hj por exemplo cobranças com cursos de especialização vc faz quando vai olhar o salário não compensa pelo que vc capacitou um exemplo claro mopp para conduzir veículo de combustível salários que variam entre R$2.132,00 até R$2.400,00 ainda as empresas não fornecem cartão passagem,