3 min read
0 comments
A new study suggests that the world's population may be underestimated, especially in rural areas. Differences in data could impact public policy and global planning
As United Nations estimate the current global population to be 8,2 billion people, with a peak of 10,3 billion predicted in the 2080s. However, these projections have always been approximate, as it is impossible to count each person individually.
Some regions have more sophisticated censuses, while others have difficulty registering their inhabitants more accurately. It is estimated that around 850 million people in the world do not have identity documents.
Now, a new study suggests that the global population may be underestimated, especially in rural areas. The research, led by Aalto University in Finland, raises questions about the accuracy of official counts.
- Underground nuclear tests could be hidden if they occur simultaneously with earthquakes, a new study suggests
- 51.200-year-old cave painting in Indonesia is oldest example of visual storytelling in rock art
- US warns of possibility of Chinese army with genetically modified soldiers and artificial intelligence support, according to official report
- New Chinese company arrives in Brazil and will generate 500 jobs: Realme opens the first factory in Latin America with the capacity to produce up to 20.000 cell phones per day
Study finds underestimation of global population in rural areas
The study was not designed to review global population estimates. The researchers initially looked at the impact of dams on displaced populations. They studied 307 dam projects in 35 countries, including China, Brazil, Australia and Poland, built between 1980 and 2010.
When calculating how many people had been resettled, the researchers estimated the population of the regions before the dams were built. These numbers were compared to five large population databases, which use grids to calculate the number of inhabitants per region.
The result was a significant discrepancy: on average, these databases underestimated the global rural population by 53%. In some cases, the margin of error was as high as 84%.
Researcher Josias Láng-Ritter from Aalto University told New Scientist that the team was surprised: “We were very surprised to see how great this underrepresentation is.".
Difficulties in mapping remote regions
Undercounting can occur because population data sets are more accurate in urban areas. Cities have higher population densities and more accessible information. In remote areas, censuses face logistical challenges and are not always able to register all residents.
Another factor is the use of satellite imagery for population estimates. In urban centers, buildings and nighttime lighting make mapping easier. However, rural villages may be hidden by vegetation or scattered with small buildings, making them nearly invisible to these tools.
Impacts of underestimating the world population
Accurate population data is critical for government planning, resource allocation, and disaster response. Incorrect data can lead to serious consequences.
A disaster risk map that underestimates rural populations can result in a lack of adequate emergency services. Health planning can fail to allocate resources, leaving communities underserved.
Currently, almost half of the world’s population lives in rural areas. Ensuring accurate censuses is essential to effectively serve these populations. The UN’s Sustainable Development Goals aim to ensure that all communities are included in global action plans.
Issue still under debate
Despite their findings, the Finnish researchers do not claim that the global population is significantly larger than official figures indicate. They acknowledge that extrapolating their findings to the entire world is risky.
Much of the data used in the study comes from China and other Asian regions, where undercounting may be more common. In contrast, countries with more rigorous reporting systems, such as Finland and Australia, may have more accurate data.
If there were such a significant undercount, some researchers argue that the impact should be visible in other metrics. Data on energy consumption, food production and technology use could show larger discrepancies if the population was much larger than estimated.
The debate over the accuracy of population estimates continues. The Aalto University study warns of the need to improve counting methods, especially in rural areas. Improving data collection could be essential to ensure that no population is overlooked in future planning.
With information from ZME Science.
