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Bradesco BBI Analyzes Oil and Gas in 2025, Highlights Who Gained, Who Lost, and Which Trends Should Guide the Market in 2026.
The Oil and Gas sector ended 2025 marked by clear contrasts. The Bradesco BBI analyzed the performance of energy companies in Latin America and pointed out who advanced and who lost ground.
The study considers the behavior of the Oil Market throughout the year, heavily influenced by geopolitics, excess supply, and direct reflections on the Economy.
Since early 2025, the market had already anticipated difficulties for oil prices. Nonetheless, international events supported moments of volatility.
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Lula reveals a masterstroke by Petrobras to undo a deal made by Bolsonaro, which involves the return of an important refinery that currently produces less than half of what was expected and makes Brazil dependent on international diesel.
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A study confirms that the natural gas sector will reduce greenhouse gas emissions in Brazil by 0.5% and accelerate the energy transition by 2026.
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Petrobras implements a severe adjustment and confirms a 55% increase in the price of aviation kerosene with a proposal for installment payments for the companies.
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The rise in oil prices could ensure an extra revenue of R$ 100 billion for the Federal Government, indicates a recent economic study.
As the year progressed, however, fundamentals began to weigh more heavily on investors’ decisions.
Excess Supply and Geopolitics Change the Direction of the Oil Market
According to Bradesco BBI, expectations of excess supply intensified throughout 2025. At certain moments, the geopolitical risk premium reduced this impact. This premium peaked in June during the 12-day war between the United States and Iran.
Subsequently, the scenario changed. The international environment became calmer, and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies increased production. As a result, global inventories grew, making the imbalance between supply and demand more evident.
In light of this, the Oil Market began to favor companies less dependent on the price of crude oil.
Less Commoditized Companies Lead Gains in Oil and Gas
In this context, the fuel distributor Vibra stood out as the main winner of 2025. The company’s shares rose 65% during the year. Thus, they significantly outperformed the MSCI Latin America and the Ibovespa.
According to Bradesco BBI, the progress in combating informality was decisive. This strategy strengthened margins, reduced risks, and increased business predictability.
Meanwhile, OceanPact also showed significant performance. The company benefited from the strong repricing of day rate contracts. In addition, it improved the management of spot contracts and bolstered the prospect of higher returns for shareholders.
Meanwhile, Ultrapar ended 2025 with a 44% rise, in line with the Ibovespa. Despite the positive outlook for fuel distribution, risks related to capital allocation limited further gains.
Producers and Chemical Companies Feel the Negative Impact More
On the other hand, companies more exposed to oil prices faced a more difficult year. Smaller independent producers, known as junior E&P companies, fell 18% in 2025. This movement reflected the direct sensitivity of these companies to commodity fluctuations.
Additionally, the chemical sector accumulated a 6% decline for the year. The outlook for prolonged global excess supply and still-depressed industrial cycles pressured stock performance.
State-owned companies also ended the period in the negative, with an average decline of 3%. Nevertheless, the appreciation of Ecopetrol, which rose 18%, softened the group’s results, influenced by the political cycle in Colombia.
Bradesco BBI Recommendations Confirm the Selectivity Thesis
In Bradesco BBI’s evaluation, the main recommendations made in 2025 worked well, despite some adjustments. The firm consistently advocated building positions in Vibra, PRIO, and OceanPact.
Among the successes, Vibra and OceanPact stood out. Both reduced their direct dependence on oil prices and delivered more predictable results in a challenging environment.
What the Oil and Gas Sector Indicates for 2026
The 2025 balance leaves a clear signal for 2026. According to Bradesco BBI, the outlook remains challenging for oil prices, especially given the elevated supply and a less tense geopolitical environment.
Thus, the market tends to prioritize companies with resilient business models, consistent cash generation, and lower exposure to barrel price fluctuations. In a historically volatile sector, selectivity remains a decisive factor in Oil and Gas.
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