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Reduction of the Basic Interest Rate Changes the Dynamics of Investments in Brazil and Pressures Conservatives to Migrate to Risky Assets.
The cut in the Selic is already seen by the market as inevitable and represents much more than a simple technical decision by the Copom (Monetary Policy Committee). In practice, the move marks the end of the privilege of rentiers, who for years gained high returns simply from fixed income investments. Now, the change paves the way for a direct clash between traditional savers and the stock market, according to analysis by specialist Raul Sena.
For years, the Selic at high levels allowed conservative investors to live solely off interest, without the need to take risks.
But with the decline in rates, the returns from CDBs, LCIs, CRIs, and other securities are beginning to shrink, forcing a reconfiguration of the Brazilian financial market.
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Who Wins and Who Loses with the Cut in the Selic
The cut in the Selic tends to favor the capital market. With fixed income yielding less, stocks and real estate funds (FIIs) begin to stand out as higher yield alternatives.
Historically, cycles of falling interest rates have always been accompanied by appreciation in the B3, as capital migrates to risky assets in search of gains.
On the other hand, traditional savers, retirees, and families who depended on high interest rates to supplement their income will feel the direct impact on their monthly earnings.
This group, accustomed to living off conservative investments, will need to rethink strategies and consider diversification, even if it involves taking on greater risks.
How Much Fixed Income Loses Its Appeal
With the Selic at 15% per year, public and private bonds offered significant returns, some exceeding IPCA + 12%, which sustained the logic of rent-seeking.
But the trend of cuts is expected to significantly reduce this yield. This means that fixed income investments will no longer provide the same financial comfort, forcing investors to seek alternatives.
According to Raul Sena, the effect is inevitable: the lower the Selic rate, the less attractive fixed income becomes and the greater the pressure for allocation in risky assets.
Why the Stock Market Benefits from the Cut in the Selic
Recent history proves the correlation. In 2008, even with the subprime crisis, the drop in interest rates sustained the recovery of the Brazilian stock market.
In 2020, with the Selic at its lowest level in history, the Ibovespa strongly rebounded.
Today, the index trades at 9.2 times earnings (P/E), below the historical average of 10.9, creating room for appreciation if the capital migration is confirmed.
Real estate funds also tend to benefit, as the reduction in interest rates increases the attractiveness of dividends paid by these assets compared to fixed income.
Where the Social Impact is Most Visible
The cut in the Selic affects not only investors. Lower interest rates reduce the cost of credit, make real estate financing cheaper, and make loans for businesses and consumers more accessible. This stimulates consumption, investments, and job creation.
On the other hand, retirees who depend on conservative investments may see their income reduced.
This redistributive effect reveals the social character of monetary policy, which, while boosting the economy, impacts the finances of those who have always relied on high interest rates.
The Risk of Cutting Too Much and Losing Control of Inflation
Despite the benefits, the Central Bank faces a dilemma. If the cut in the Selic is excessive or accelerated, there is a risk of reigniting inflation.
The monetary authority needs to find balance: reduce interest rates to stimulate the economy, but without compromising the inflation targeting regime, which is the basis of the system’s credibility.
This point will be decisive in determining whether the downward trend will be sustainable and trusted by national and international investors.
Is It Worth Migrating to the Risk Market?
Experts warn that the answer depends on the investor’s profile. Those seeking higher returns will need to open up to diversification, especially in stocks, real estate funds, and ETFs.
However, it is likely that some savers will accept lower yields in exchange for security, keeping resources in fixed income even with reduced profitability.
Still, the trend is clear: the larger the gap between fixed income returns and opportunities in the stock market, the greater the pressure for conservative investors to take risks in the capital market.
The cut in the Selic is not just a technical decision by the Copom. It symbolizes the transition from an era of rent-seeking to a new cycle of protagonism of the risk market in Brazil.
For some, it opens opportunities for gains in stocks and real estate funds. For others, it means a loss of income and the need to adapt.
And you, do you believe that the cut in the Selic will indeed force traditional savers to migrate to the stock market? Or do you think many will still prefer lower yields in exchange for security?
Leave your opinion in the comments; we want to hear the perspective of those who are already feeling the effects of this change.
Tendencioso até altas horas!! Só esqueceu de mencionar que baixando a Selic e aumentando IOF e IR, automaticamente os poupadores terão de migrar para outros investimentos e a poupança ainda não será o destino…essa história de ganho para rentistas e fim dos privilégios, só rende em grupos de esquerda…Haddad sequer conseguir arrecadar conforme antecipado… política econômica baseada em aumentar a arrecadação tributária e fiscalização turbinada.
A poupança lidera o investimento no Brasil. DEVE MANTER!!!
Testo de ****, deve ser um canhoto mesmo… Kkkkk
Esse ano os juros da Celic não fica abaixo de 13%..
Ano que vem talvez chega a 10%.