According to Aneel, the increase in the electricity bill will occur because the Government needs to cover a loss of up to R$ 10.8 billion caused by the water crisis. The increase will only take effect in 2023
The National Electric Energy Agency (Aneel) reported that it needs up to R$ 10.8 billion to cover the emergency measures costs made to support the energy sector. In order for this to be done, the Federal Government will need to take out a loan to settle this loss and will not pass on the costs to consumers’ electricity bills in 2022. With the focus on the election year, the transfer will be frozen and will only take effect starting in 2023, with added interest.
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Aneel will also define the amounts and conditions necessary for the loan, which has been divided into two installments and has already been authorized through a Provisional Measure. The operation is related to the expenses of the water crisis, which is limited to R$ 5.6 billion, and will remain under public consultation for a period of 10 days. After this phase, the Aneel board will review the agenda to then transfer the funds to the distributors.
Costs That Will Cause the Increase in the Electricity Bill
The first installment of the loan will be used to cover the balance of the Flag Account expected for April, of R$ 1.5 billion, the costs of importing electricity for the months of July and August, totaling R$ 800 million; the deferrals due to the distributors, adding another R$ 1.6 billion; and finally, the bonus for consumers who saved electricity in the last year, calculated at R$ 1.7 billion.
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However, regarding the amount of the discount applied to consumers’ electricity bills, there are still disagreements. At that time, the Government had informed that this amount would be R$ 2.4 billion.
The second installment is projected to total R$ 5.2 billion and would be used to cover the fixed revenue costs of thermal power plants, contracted in an emergency auction held in 2021, which were used to generate electricity and contribute to the increase in the bill.
The current president Jair Bolsonaro has already signed the decree that provides for the loan, however, Aneel has not yet decreed whether it will actually contract the installment, with a deadline that should be available by May.
Although the announcement of the amount is available for public consultation, it has not yet been fully defined. This is due to the fact that the Aneel board has already informed that it will need to periodically review cost estimates, since the calculations made by the agency do not account for the new restrictions imposed by the Federal Government on the use of thermal plants in electricity generation.
This week, it was determined by the Electric Sector Monitoring Committee (CMSE) that only plants with a Variable Unit Cost (Custo Variável Unitário – CVU) of up to R$ 600 megawatt-hours (MWh) may be activated. The amount of contracted and imported energy from this source has also been limited.

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