Portuguese 
English 
Spanish 
4 min of reading 
0 comments 
National Production Should Stagnate, While US Expands Global Leadership With New Technologies and Incentives
Although Brazil has increased its oil production over the past decades, warning signs have already begun to sound.
According to projections from the Energy Research Company (EPE), released by the Ministry of Mines and Energy in 2024, Brazil may become an importer of the commodity as early as 2030.
With stagnant production expected by the beginning of the next decade, the numbers forecast a sharp decline by 2040.
The estimate points to virtually no production by 2050.
This change contrasts sharply with the reality in the United States.
The country has aggressively invested in extraction technologies such as shale — or shale gas — and has opened its market to the private sector.
Since 2018, the US has become a global leader in the segment.
Meanwhile, Brazil, with a predominant focus on offshore oil, faces structural, regulatory, and environmental challenges that hinder production growth.
Geological and Political Differences Stalled Brazilian Progress
The interruption of oil auctions between 2008 and 2013 had a lasting impact on the sector.
During this period, the government was discussing the sharing model for the pre-salt.
This hiatus drastically reduced the supply of exploratory blocks, limiting the national productive potential.
-
Petrobras evaluates suspension of sales to distributors and considers canceling the cooking gas auction following guidelines from the Federal Government.
-
Lula reveals a masterstroke by Petrobras to undo a deal made by Bolsonaro, which involves the return of an important refinery that currently produces less than half of what was expected and makes Brazil dependent on international diesel.
-
A study confirms that the natural gas sector will reduce greenhouse gas emissions in Brazil by 0.5% and accelerate the energy transition by 2026.
-
Petrobras implements a severe adjustment and confirms a 55% increase in the price of aviation kerosene with a proposal for installment payments for the companies.
While the United States prioritized low-cost onshore exploration, Brazil focused its efforts on the pre-salt.
This region, discovered in 2006 by Petrobras, currently represents 80% of national production.
However, experts like Roberto Ardenghy, president of the Brazilian Institute of Oil and Gas (IBP), warn about the limited lifespan of these reserves.
The Campos Basin, for example, which started in 1977, is already in a phase of decline.
The pre-salt, whose exploration effectively began in 2008, will also face irreversible decline in the coming years.
Lack of Auctions and Regulatory Barriers Delay Recovery
There is a need for new auctions and regulatory reforms!
Ensuring attractiveness for international investors is essential to reverse the declining trend.
The potential of the Equatorial Margin basins, near French Guiana, and the Pelotas Basin in the south of the country.
Based on IBP data, these areas have been identified with high exploration potential and could offset some of the expected losses.
Even so, difficulties persist.
One of the biggest obstacles, according to Gas Bridge president Marco Tavares, is the absence of a more competitive business environment.
He advocates for the adoption of technologies widely used abroad, such as fracking, which makes shale economically viable.
However, since 2019, Paraná has prohibited the use of this technique.
The Federal Public Ministry maintains actions that hinder its implementation in the national territory.
Argentina and US Expand Their Role With Shale
While Brazil faces limitations, other countries in South America are advancing.
Argentina has attracted international companies by allowing the use of shale.
The country has discovered the second largest reserve in the world — second only to the United States.
This has allowed it to export about 50% of local production, using competitive prices based on the American market.
This shift has led industry giants to establish themselves in the neighboring country.
Now, Argentina directly competes with Brazil in Latin America.
According to Ardenghy, this competition is healthy as it stimulates advancements and energy security on the continent.
In the United States, the results are even more impressive.
In 2005, the country produced about 5 million barrels per day.
By 2024, it surpassed 13 million, according to the National Oil Agency (ANP).
This growth was made possible by the dominance of fracking.
The technique allowed the nation to move from being the largest global importer to becoming an exporter.
Paths to Keep Brazil as a Relevant Exporter
Despite the challenging scenario, experts believe that Brazil can still benefit from the growing global demand for oil.
According to João Victor Marques, a researcher at FGV Energia, the expansion of the auction agenda is urgent.
This would ensure predictability for investors and allow for studies on promising areas.
Furthermore, it would attract foreign companies interested in the South American market.
Marques emphasizes that the entry of Asian companies, especially Chinese ones, is strategic.
The Asian continent is expected to concentrate the highest global demand in the coming decades.
After the war in Ukraine, Europe also diversified its suppliers.
This has made Brazil even more relevant in the geopolitical landscape.
Therefore, diversifying suppliers, investing in environmental licensing, and maintaining international trust are fundamental actions.
These actions ensure that Brazil remains a reliable and competitive player in the international oil market.
However, time is against the country.
If no structural measures are taken in the coming years, EPE’s predictions will materialize.
Thus, Brazil will go from a promising exporter to dependent on importing oil.
Seja o primeiro a reagir!