Government Takes Cautious Approach to Energy Transition and Raises Alert on Risks to Sustainability, International Prominence, and Climate Goals
The energy transition represents one of the most urgent themes of the 21st century. Although the entire world seeks to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions, the process requires not only formal commitments but mainly structural changes.
In the case of Brazil, despite having a vast potential in clean sources such as solar, wind, and hydroelectric, the government still relies on a cautious approach to energy transition, which worries experts and civil society organizations.
Although the Talanoa Institute recognizes the progress represented by the publication of the National Mitigation Strategy, the entity alerts to the need for bolder decisions. Therefore, when analyzing the plan, which will be a fundamental part of the Climate Plan, Talanoa highlights that it still allows for the continuation of fossil fuels.
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Thus, instead of promoting decarbonization of the energy sector, the document forecasts stagnation or even an increase in emissions until 2035.
Consequently, this posture may hinder the achievement of the goals of the Paris Agreement, as well as compromise Brazil’s role in the new low-carbon economy.
Even though the country has made public promises, its practical conduct reveals contradictions that, according to Talanoa, need to be urgently addressed.
Global Commitments and Brazil’s Historical Role
To understand this hesitation, it is essential to revisit the historical context. Since the establishment of the UN Climate Convention in the 1990s, Brazil has participated actively in multilateral negotiations.
Although the Kyoto Protocol did not require targets from developing countries, Brazil presented itself as an influential voice. Later, in 2015, the Paris Agreement solidified a new paradigm, where all countries — including Brazil — began to have voluntary climate commitments.
Despite this, the country continues to adopt a timid posture in practice. Although it has taken on ambitious targets in its Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), the implementation of these targets faces internal obstacles.
For example, the energy sector, one of the most strategic for climate mitigation, remains supported by fossil fuels and receives subsidies that perpetuate this model.
On the other hand, most countries that make up the G20 are already accelerating their investments in clean energy. In this way, Brazil runs the risk of missing economic and innovation opportunities, in addition to compromising its international image.
Thus, the cautious approach to energy transition may seem strategic at first, but it reveals serious weaknesses in the long run.
National Energy Matrix and Cautious Approach to Energy Transition
Although the Brazilian energy matrix is cleaner than the global average, the country has begun to increase the use of gas, coal, and diesel thermoelectric plants in recent decades, especially in times of water crisis.
Meanwhile, countries like China, the United States, and Germany are accelerating investments in solar and wind energy, becoming leaders in innovation and installed capacity.
Still, Brazil continues to invest below its potential in renewable sources. This is reflected in the content of the National Mitigation Strategy, which does not impose strict limits on the expansion of fossil fuels.
Thus, the plan fails to meet the expectations of a public policy focused on sustainability.
Furthermore, experts point out that maintaining this dependence on polluting sources compromises the country’s energy and climate security.
In this sense, it can be said that Brazil misses an opportunity to lead a new energy model that combines efficiency, low cost, and respect for the environment. Therefore, changing this direction is not only necessary but inevitable.
Internal Contradictions and Critique by the Talanoa Institute
The critique of the Talanoa Institute focuses on the inconsistencies present within the Climate Plan itself. While the Adaptation axis presents concrete solutions, the Mitigation axis appears limited.
As Natalie Unterstell, president of the organization, stated: “Using the climate crisis as an excuse to stall renewables is shooting oneself in the foot.”
Additionally, Natalie argues that Mitigation and Adaptation must go hand in hand. Therefore, allowing setbacks in one area compromises the effectiveness of the other.
By allowing the expansion of fossil fuels under the justification of energy security, the government contradicts its own long-term objectives.
On the other hand, civil society can and should fill spaces in this debate. After all, climate policies need to reflect the aspirations of the population.
When there is social participation, public policy becomes more legitimate, effective, and democratic.
Social Participation as Key to Change
In this context, the government opened a public consultation on the National Mitigation Strategy. The deadline extends until mid-August and represents a decisive opportunity for society to influence the direction of energy policy.
The pressure from civil society has been fundamental for progress in various areas, and energy is no different.
Therefore, engaging in this debate is essential. By contributing suggestions, critiques, and proposals, society helps to prevent setbacks.
Moreover, it strengthens the link between science, public policy, and democracy. Although this process is challenging, it is also promising.
In this sense, the Talanoa Institute closely monitors each step of the plan. The entity provides technical analyses and evidence-based suggestions, contributing to a qualified debate.
Thus, social participation translates not only into citizenship but also into transformation.
Opportunity for Leadership and Risks of Hesitation
For all these reasons, maintaining a cautious approach to energy transition means forsaking a safer, more competitive future. Although the country faces economic and social challenges, there are also unique windows of opportunity.
The abundance of sun, wind, biomass, and rivers offers rare natural advantages.
Furthermore, decarbonization can create jobs, attract investments, and strengthen regional development. Countries that invest in innovation and sustainability are already reaping the benefits.
For this reason, Brazil needs to align its decisions with the most promising paths of the global economy.
While others accelerate, Brazil hesitates. However, it is still possible to turn the tide.
In this way, replacing fossil fuel subsidies with support for research, innovation, and expansion of renewables is one of the most urgent changes.
Although it may seem difficult in the short term, it is a strategic move for the future.
Paths to the Future: More Action and Less Hesitation
In conclusion, Brazil finds itself at a crossroads. The cautious approach to energy transition, although understandable from certain perspectives, does not align with the climate challenges of our time.
Moreover, it compromises the country’s international prominence and undermines its competitiveness.
However, there is time to change. With more ambition, coherence, and participation, the country can transform its potential into reality.
Thus, the energy transition ceases to be a risk and becomes an opportunity. Finally, it is up to Brazil to choose between hesitation and leadership.


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