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Decision Opens New Round in Global Competition for Agricultural Markets and Puts Pressure on Companies That Need to Act Quickly to Ensure Refunds
The decision by the President of the United States, Donald Trump, to suspend the additional 40% tariff applied since July on various Brazilian agricultural products provoked an immediate reaction among exporters, foreign trade analysts, and investors. The measure, formalized through an Executive Order last week, removes from the list of surtaxes items with a significant weight in the trade balance between the two countries, including coffee, beef cuts, açaí, tomatoes, guava, mango, bananas, and cocoa. With a direct impact on competitiveness, the suspension is already seen as a reopening of access for Brazilian agribusiness to the world’s largest food importer.
The relief comes with another decisive element: the retroactive application of the measure to November 13. The order stipulates that the suspension applies to goods cleared in the United States from this date, allowing importers to request refunds of the amounts paid based on the additional tariff from U.S. Customs and Border Protection. The possibility of refunds has the potential to generate millions of dollars in just the first few months, especially among trading companies and slaughterhouses that maintained shipments even under the burden of the surtax.
International Trade Lawyer Carol Monteiro of Monteiro & Weiss Trade Commented on
According to international trade lawyer Carol Monteiro of Monteiro & Weiss Trade, the measure represents an opportunity but does not end the debate about the scope of tariff exemptions. According to her, the fact that some products were left off the new list should influence the direction of negotiations.
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“The exclusion of new items certainly creates room for negotiations to move towards expanding the list of exemptions. It is noteworthy, however, that certain sectors were not covered by the Executive Order, such as seafood, whose exports were primarily destined for the U.S. and are of great relevance to the Northeast region of Brazil, along with other equally affected supply chains,” comments the lawyer.
In Addition to Sectoral Discussion, the Specialist Warns of a Strategic Point That Remains Pending and May Affect Bilateral Trade Structurally.
“Another relevant point is the absence of an explicit reference to the investigation initiated under Section 301, which deals with Brazil’s trade policies, involving Brazil-related practices regarding digital commerce and electronic payment methods, including PIX, preferential tariffs, enforcement of anti-corruption regulations, intellectual property protection, ethanol, and illegal deforestation. The investigation is still ongoing, with potentially significant long-term impacts on the bilateral trade relationship,” she assesses.
The lawyer notes that the process is in the phase of bilateral consultations between Brazil and the U.S., but there is still no clarity on the next steps.
“There was a hearing in September, with the participation of Brazilian entities and the Government, but so far there is no clear indication regarding the possible developments of this procedure or whether the issue is being effectively addressed in the ongoing negotiations,” she comments.
The investigation has a duration deadline until July 2026, with the possibility of additional tariffs being defined at the end of the process.
The prevailing view among analysts is that the suspension of the surtaxes is likely to strengthen Brazil’s position in the short term, but does not eliminate future regulatory risks.
Brazilian exporters have already reported a resumption of negotiations interrupted since July, with expectations of increased shipments in 2025, particularly in the coffee and beef protein sectors.
Nonetheless, the market remains cautious regarding potential sudden changes in U.S. trade policy. There is an enhanced risk due to the explicit forecast of ongoing monitoring contained in the Executive Order itself.
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