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Unicamp Research Creates Innovative Model, Identifies New Desertification Spot in Ceará and Points to the Phenomenon’s Advancement Beyond Historically Affected Areas
The advancement of desertification in Brazil may be greater than indicated by current official maps. A doctoral research developed at the Institute of Geosciences of the State University of Campinas showed that the combination of climate change and intensified human land use is increasing risk areas, especially in the Northeast of the country.
The study was conducted by researcher Mariana de Oliveira, a member of a group investigating how climate variations and human actions impact soils, vegetation, and water resources.
From this work, a specific model was created to estimate the risk of desertification under Brazilian geographical conditions, providing a more detailed understanding of the phenomenon’s dynamics.
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Model Identifies Most Vulnerable Areas
To build the model, the research used logistic regression method, gathering empirical data, thematic maps, and satellite images.
The analysis considered five variables identified as critical for the advancement of desertification: land surface temperature, land management practices, vegetation cover, average precipitation, and population density.
By crossing this information, the work mapped the probability of occurrence of the phenomenon in different regions of the country, offering an integrated view of the factors contributing to environmental degradation.
New Spot in Ceará Draws Attention
Among the main results, a possible new desertification spot was identified in an area that had not yet been officially mapped in Ceará, in addition to other zones in the state with high risk of environmental degradation.
According to the research, the scenario reinforces the trend of expanding desertification beyond historically affected areas, driven by both climate changes and inadequate land use practices.
For Flávio Rodrigues do Nascimento, coordinator of the Department for Combating Desertification of the Ministry of the Environment and Climate Change, the methodology represents an important advancement.
He states that the model contributes to more efficient monitoring of degraded areas and allows for a more accurate diagnosis of the most vulnerable regions, supporting public policies for prevention and mitigation. The information is from Jornal da Unicamp.
The phenomenon is also advancing on a global scale. Olhar Digital had previously reported that desertification is growing in other parts of the planet, and according to the UN, 75% of the world’s land has become drier in recent decades.
These data reinforce the magnitude of the challenge and the need for ongoing monitoring and environmental planning actions.
With information from Olhar Digital.
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