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Diesel And Biodiesel Blend Expected To Reach New Record In The Country, Driven By Agribusiness And Industrial Activity
The consumption of diesel B, a blend of diesel A and biodiesel, is expected to reach a new historical record in 2025, according to projections from StoneX, a global financial services company.
The estimate, released in October 2025, indicates an annual growth of 2.7%, totaling 69.1 million cubic meters of fuel.
This increase, driven by the transportation of agricultural inputs during soybean planting, reinforces the strategic role of the agricultural sector in national consumption.
Demand At Accelerated Pace Driven By The Field
According to Bruno Cordeiro, Market Intelligence Analyst at StoneX, the performance of diesel B in 2025 confirms its strong connection with rural dynamics.
He emphasized that, despite occasional fluctuations, demand is expected to end the year on a high note, supported by a robust harvest and slight expansion of industrial activity.
Furthermore, the intensification of grain and fertilizer transport from September to December is expected to solidify the annual consumption record.
On the other hand, for 2026, projections remain positive, albeit with a more moderate growth pace.
The expected increase in soybean and corn production, coupled with regional industrial expansion, is likely to elevate the flow of heavy trucks on highways.
The growing volume of exports is expected to reinforce the national logistics movement.
Therefore, the continuous transport of goods should keep the consumption of diesel B high in the coming years.
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Economic Projections And Potential Uncertainties
Meanwhile, the Central Bank of Brazil, in its September 2025 bulletin, projects a more contained economic growth, close to 1.5% per year.
For 2025, estimates range between 2.0% and 2.2%, indicating moderate stability in economic performance.
However, there are uncertainties regarding the effects of United States tariff policy on Brazilian productive sectors.
There is also a possibility of global economic slowdown, which could affect national exports.
In this context, StoneX predicts that demand for diesel B is expected to rise by 1.9% in 2026, reaching about 70.4 million cubic meters.
The increase, however, is expected to occur at a slower pace than in 2025, reflecting a combination of gradual internal growth and external challenges.
These factors may directly influence fuel demand across the country.
Scenarios For Diesel A And The Biofuel Blend
In the case of diesel A, the performance will depend on the volume of diesel B sold and the biodiesel blend adopted in 2026.
According to the Future Fuel Law, the proportion of biofuel must increase 1 percentage point per year until 2030.
This means the percentage should reach 20% by the end of the cycle.
However, in 2025, there were delays in the implementation of B15, due to discussions about the impact of rising soybean oil prices on domestic prices.
This factor also increased the final product cost and influenced the pace of blend adoption.
Thus, StoneX has developed two possible scenarios for the next year.
- Scenario 1: Maintenance of B15 (15% biodiesel) throughout the year.
The result would be a consumption of 59.9 million m³ of diesel A, up 1.2% compared to 2025. - Scenario 2: Adoption of B16 (16% biodiesel) starting in March.
This would reduce the fossil fuel share to 84%, with a demand of 59.3 million m³ and a growth of 0.2%.
Still, other scenarios for B16 are under evaluation by the National Energy Policy Council (CNPE).
The body is expected to define the final proportion at the beginning of 2026.
Optimistic Outlook And The Relevance Of Biofuel
Despite the uncertainties, the sector remains optimistic about the consolidation of biodiesel as a national energy pillar.
StoneX, a reference in market intelligence since 1924, emphasizes that the integration between the field, industry, and exports will sustain high consumption of diesel B.
This alignment strengthens the productive chain and the role of biofuel in the Brazilian economy.
Therefore, even with potential adjustments in the global economy and blending policies, Brazil is expected to end 2025 with the highest consumption of diesel B in history.
Thus, the country consolidates itself as a regional leader in the adoption of sustainable biofuels.
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