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International Energy Agency (IEA) Report Points Out That Global Renewable Generation Capacity Should More Than Double By 2030, With Solar Energy Leading The Growth. However, Projections Have Been Revised Downwards Due To Policies In The US And Economic Changes In China.
The solar energy remains the main engine of the expansion of renewable sources worldwide, but the International Energy Agency (IEA) has lowered its projections for sector growth by 2030, as reported on Wednesday, 08. The Renewables 2025 report indicates that the increase in global capacity will be substantial — surpassing 4,600 gigawatts (GW) — but 248 GW less than previously estimated in 2024.
According to the study, more than 80% of the new capacity will come from solar energy, driven by declining installation costs and the agility in licensing processes. The remainder will be complemented by sources such as wind, hydroelectric, bioenergy, and geothermal, reinforcing the trend of diversification in the global energy matrix.
US Loses Momentum In Solar Energy Advancement After Political Changes
In the United States, the outlook for the renewable sector has drastically declined. The IEA highlights that the premature elimination of federal tax incentives and regulatory adjustments during the Donald Trump administration have reduced growth expectations in the North American market by nearly 50% compared to the previous forecast.
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The Brazilian Northeast is receiving the largest wave of investments in clean energy ever seen in the country, with R$ 200 billion in wind and solar, 9,000 km of transmission lines, and a promise that could change the economy of 60 million people.
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Chinese company creates solar cell that breaks the physical limit of silicon with 34.85% efficiency and promises to revolutionize electricity bills with panels that generate 20% more energy starting in 2026.
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Jacareí advances with a photovoltaic plant and bets on sustainability to transform public management with clean solar energy, reducing operational costs and strengthening energy efficiency in essential services.
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Maricá transforms Risca-Faca into Leonel Brizola Neighborhood with solar energy and promises to reduce costs for families while promoting dignity, urbanization, and social development in a historically vulnerable community.
These measures have weakened the pace of expansion of solar and wind energy, precisely when other countries are consolidating more aggressive decarbonization policies. Sources such as Bloomberg, Reuters, and Al Jazeera indicate that without government stimulus, investors have faced uncertainties regarding the viability of new projects, especially in states that depend on federal subsidies.
Nevertheless, analysts believe that the long-term trend will remain positive, driven by demand from large companies and the continuous decrease in solar panel costs.
China Also Slows Down, But Remains Leader In Installed Capacity
While the US loses traction, China — considered the engine of renewable energy in the last decade — also faces challenges. The IEA report reveals that the transition from fixed tariffs to the energy auction model has impacted the profitability of solar and wind projects in the country.
This change has led to a negative revision of growth forecasts for Chinese capacity. However, China remains the world’s largest market for solar energy, responsible for an impressive volume of installed photovoltaic panels and wind turbines in recent years.
In addition, the country is heavily investing in innovation, storage, and new technologies to reduce dependence on fossil fuels. The expectation is that, even with economic adjustments, the Chinese government will continue to prioritize energy transition as a central strategy of industrial and environmental policy.
The IEA notes that emerging economies in Asia, the Middle East, and Africa are registering accelerated progress. The combination of competitive costs, political support, and new auction programs has driven large-scale investments.
India, for example, is about to become the second largest market for renewable energy expansion, right behind China, and is expected to comfortably meet its goals by 2030. This movement reinforces the position of the Asian continent as a global leader in the race for energy sustainability.
Social And Environmental Impacts Enter The Global Debate On Renewables
In Brazil, the advancement of renewable sources is also generating debates. The Northeast accounts for more than 90% of the installed wind capacity in the country, but there are complaints about socio-environmental impacts. Prosecutor José Godoy of the Federal Public Ministry (MPF) of Paraíba warns about secret contracts and harm to local communities, which face health problems and displacement due to the proximity of wind towers.
This type of situation reignites the discussion about sustainable mining and the balance between energy expansion and environmental justice. In this regard, Colombia proposed to the UN the creation of an international group of experts to formulate the foundations of a global treaty regulating the extraction and trade of strategic minerals used in clean technologies.
Thus, even with the revision of the IEA projections, solar energy continues to shine as a pillar of the global energy transition — especially among US, China, and other emerging powers competing for leadership in this new global scenario.
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