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Study Reveals That a Volcanic Eruption in 1345 May Have Created Conditions That Favored the Emergence of The Black Death in Europe.
Volcanic Eruption May Have Given Rise to The Black Death, Researchers Reveal
A new international study reveals what may have triggered one of the largest public health disasters in history: The Black Death.
Researchers discovered that a volcanic eruption in 1345 significantly altered the European climate, contributing to the crisis that, a few years later, killed about one-third of the population of Europe. The findings were published this Thursday (4) in the journal Communications Earth & Environment.
The scientists, led by experts in climate, history, and epidemiology, analyzed tree rings from all over Europe, compared the data with ice cores from Greenland and Antarctica, and studied historical documents to reconstruct the climatic and social environment that preceded the medieval pandemic.
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The study was conducted by Martin Bauch from the Leibniz Institute and Ulf Büntgen from the University of Cambridge.
According to the authors, the eruption would have partially blocked sunlight, reduced temperatures, and caused severe crop losses. This scarcity environment helped create the “perfect storm” for an unprecedented public health crisis.
How The Eruption May Have Influenced The Arrival of The Plague
The drop in temperatures and the failure of crops pressured Italian cities, such as Venice and Genoa, to import grains from the Black Sea. However, the ships carrying these foods also brought the Yersinia pestis bacteria, responsible for the bubonic plague.
The bacteria lived in fleas of wild rodents from Central Asia, and, with the death of their natural hosts, fleas migrated to new animals — including humans.
According to Bauch, grain warehouses attracted these fleas, which could survive for months feeding on cereal residue, facilitating their journey to European ports.
Thus, the chain of climatic, social, and economic events converged to allow the spread of the plague.
Extreme Weather and Famine: Key Pieces of The Medieval Pandemic
Researchers already knew that maritime trade played a crucial role in bringing The Black Death to Europe. However, this is the first time that a study directly links volcanic activity and climatic collapse to the pandemic.
Bauch identified, in historical records, signs of intense famine immediately before The Black Death. Büntgen, in turn, analyzed thousands of samples from living and ancient trees. The rings showed abnormally low temperatures for two to three years, corresponding to the post-eruption period.
Meanwhile, ice cores showed sulfur spikes, a substance released in large quantities by tropical volcanoes, reinforcing the climatic hypothesis.
Why Some Regions Were Devastated and Others Not
The study also clarifies one of the oldest enigmas of The Black Death: why some regions lost up to 60% of their population while others were little affected. The researchers attribute this difference directly to the supply patterns of each city.
Bauch explains that cities like Rome and Milan, despite being large, depended less on grain imports because they were surrounded by producing areas. Therefore, they had less contact with contaminated cargo arriving from the Black Sea.
In contrast, port cities highly dependent on maritime trade became epicenters of bacterial spread, as they continuously received ships loaded with grains — and, along with them, fleas infected with Yersinia pestis.
The Black Death in Numbers
- Before the pandemic, the world population was less than 450 million.
- Between 1347 and 1351, it is estimated that at least 25 million died in Europe alone.
- The social, economic, and cultural impact lasted for decades.
Scientific Impact and New Debates
Experts who did not participate in the study praised the results and reinforced their importance in understanding the relationship between climate and pandemics. Among them, Mark Welford from the University of Northern Iowa stated that the research strengthens the connection between climate change and disease dynamics.
Additionally, Mark Bailey from the University of East Anglia highlighted that events such as The Black Death “likely only occurred due to an unusual coincidence of natural and social factors.”
Finally, Alex Brown from the University of Durham emphasized that the study highlights the need to understand the interdependence between people, animals, and the environment — especially to prevent future pandemics.
When The Climate Changes, Diseases Also Change
The research indicates that The Black Death was not merely the result of trade, neglect of public health, or historical bad luck. On the contrary, the study shows that the event was profoundly influenced by climate, medieval economic organization, and the interaction between humans and the environment.
Thus, the authors’ conclusion is clear: small climatic changes can trigger global effects and, when combined with social vulnerabilities, can transform local outbreaks into devastating pandemics.
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