U.S. Corn Exports Decline at the Start of 2023, Worrying Producers; Brazil Gains Market Share

US Corn Exports Typically Start to Rise in January, with Soybean Shipments Declining, but This Upward Trend Has Yet to Materialize, Largely Due to Weak Sales Abroad.

China Is the Missing Ingredient for U.S. Exporters, and Strong Orders from the Asian Country Have Boosted U.S. Corn Exports in the Past Two Years, Even as High Prices Have Often Diminished Demand. Hopes for a Similar Purchase Eventually Began to Dwindle Earlier This Month, After U.S. Corn Sales to China This Season Were Nearly 70% Lower Than in the Previous Two Years.

But Chinese Demand Has Not Diminished, According to Data from Brazil, Which Exported Over 1 Million Tons of Corn to China Last Month and Is Expected to Repeat This Performance This Month. While China’s Interest in Brazilian Corn May Be Bad for U.S. Exporters, Purchases Are Good for Global Markets, as They Reflect the Asian Country’s Intent to Continue Importing the Yellow Grain, Mainly Used for Animal Feed.

Corn Exports in Brazil Are Also Expected to Decrease

Brazilian Corn Exports Are Expected to Slow Down in the Coming Months, with China Potentially Turning to the North American Market. But Since April 2022, Chinese Buyers Have Not Secured Any Significant Purchases of U.S. Corn, Much Less Than the Frenzy in Early 2021.

The U.S. Remains the World’s Largest Corn Exporter, but Its Dominance Is Rapidly Diminishing as Brazil’s Corn Industry Expands, and Other Countries May Soon Join China in Favoring Brazilian Supplies.

Reducing Shipments in Corn Exports

U.S. Corn Production in 2022 Is Lower Than Expected and Lower Than in the Previous Two Years, Reducing Export Potential. But Most U.S. Export Estimates for 2022/23, Including Those from the USDA, Initially Included Stronger Than Expected Chinese Purchases.

The Failure with China Has Undoubtedly Reduced Export Targets, Even Though Total U.S. Corn Sales to All Other Destinations Were at a 10-Year Low Earlier This Month.

These Factors May Force the USDA to Cut U.S. Corn Exports by 150 Million Bushels Last Week, from 1.925 Billion Bushels (48.9 Million Tons) for the 2022/23 Marketing Year Ending on August 31. If Sales Remain Low, Further Cuts May Be Necessary. Only 45% of the USDA’s January Export Estimate Was Sold by January 5, the Second Lowest Coverage in the Last 15 Years.

Brazil Exported Nearly 8 Million Tons More Corn Than the U.S. in 2012/13 Following a Devastating Drought in the U.S., but the U.S. Has Exported at Least 10 Million Tons More Than Brazil Every Year Since Then. U.S. Corn Exports May Rebound in 2023/24 If the 2023 Crop Is Strong, But If Short-Term Exports and Crop Growth Serve as Indications, Brazil May Take the Lead Anyway.