Portuguese 
English 
Spanish 
5 min of reading 
0 comments 
With the Massive Deficit of 2026 Still Open, the Treasury Races to Raise R$ 30 Billion by Increasing Taxes on Bets, Fintechs, and Crypto Assets, Reducing Tax Benefits, and Promising to Maintain the New Income Tax Exemption Up to R$ 5 Thousand Monthly for Formal Workers, Retirees, and Small Entrepreneurs in the Country.
The federal government admitted that it still needs to close a hefty account in 2026: R$ 30 billion is missing to meet the fiscal result goal and deliver a surplus next year. To fill this massive gap without retreating from the promise to exempt Income Tax for those earning up to R$ 5 thousand, the strategy is clear: recalibrate taxes on the top of the pyramid, tighten tax benefits, and target sectors that have grown rapidly, such as bets, fintechs, and crypto assets.
In practice, the Ministry of Finance is playing on two fronts at the same time. On one side, it bets on projects already in progress in Congress to increase revenue in specific areas and recover points from a Provisional Measure that expired. On the other, it sells the idea that the new income tax table is “fiscally neutral,” because it compensates for the waiver at the base with more revenue from high incomes and dividends sent abroad, trying to show that the game does not blow up the public account.
Where Is the Massive Deficit of 2026
According to the economic team itself, the accounts still don’t add up. There is something around R$ 30 billion missing for the 2026 budget to meet the surplus target defined by the government.
-
Elderly individuals aged 65 or older who have never contributed to the INSS can receive R$ 1,621 per month in 2026 without having paid any contributions in their lifetime: learn how the benefit works that already supports nearly 7 million Brazilians.
-
The gaucho city reduced the number of Bolsa Família beneficiaries by almost 40% in just a year and a half with active outreach that connects each registered person directly to job vacancies in Bento Gonçalves in Rio Grande do Sul.
-
The bluest city in Brazil has just gained a new floating bridge for the free crossing between the island and the mainland, connecting residents and visitors to the historic center of São Francisco do Sul every day of the week.
-
In a silent race, Shopee signs a mega contract in Guarulhos and accelerates the e-commerce war with faster deliveries, pressured shipping, and a new threat to rivals in Brazil.
Part of this hole arises from the combination of increasing mandatory expenses, political pressures to maintain benefits, and the option to expand the income tax exemption to up to R$ 5 thousand without retreating in other areas of spending.
In straightforward language, the government decided to secure the gains of taxpayers at the base of the pyramid, but it needs to show the market where it will look for the money to compensate for this decision.
This is where the massive deficit gains political contours: either Congress approves new sources of revenue and cuts in incentives, or the risk is to push the problem to future reviews of fiscal targets, something that the Ministry of Finance tries to avoid after successive discussions about the credibility of the framework.
Bet on Bets, Fintechs, and Crypto Assets
One leg of the plan is the project presented in the Senate based on points from the old Provisional Measure that lost validity.
The text, sponsored by Senator Renan Calheiros, resumes measures to:
• increase taxation on online betting, the so-called bets
• increase the burden on fintechs in the financial sector
• tighten taxation on interest on equity (JCP)
According to the economic team’s calculations, this package could yield around R$ 10 billion in 2026, if approved this year.
The government has also already indicated that it intends to resend to Congress the proposal for taxation on crypto assets, which was part of the same expired Provisional Measure, to close the equation regarding new sources of revenue.
In practice, the message is clear: sectors that have grown rapidly, with digital business models or little-regulated in the recent past, are now firmly on the revenue radar.
The official argument is that these segments already move significant amounts, have greater contributory capacity, and can no longer remain in the shadow of the traditional tax system.
Cutting Benefits and Dispute in Congress
The other half of the plan directly targets tax benefits granted to specific sectors.
The government claims to count on the approval of the project reported by Congressman José Guimarães, which reduces incentives and tax advantages currently distributed to different production chains.
The economic team expects this trimming of benefits to total around R$ 20 billion in additional revenue.
Together with the R$ 10 billion coming from bets, fintechs, crypto assets, and JCP, the government sees a plausible path to cover the massive deficit of 2026, as long as Congress does not stall the agenda.
Behind the scenes, however, the political account is much tougher.
Each benefit cut has an organized sector defending its maintenance, strong lobby in Parliament and arguments regarding impact on jobs, competitiveness, and regional investments.
The government needs to convince the allied base that maintaining the massive deficit is riskier for the economy than revising special tax treatments that have accumulated over the years.
Who Gains and Who Pays with the New Income Tax Table
Alongside the effort to find R$ 30 billion, the government signed the law that zeroes the Income Tax for those earning up to R$ 5 thousand per month and reduces the burden for those earning up to R$ 7.35 thousand.
According to official calculations, the loss of revenue from these changes reaches R$ 28.04 billion in 2026.
On the other side of the balance, the government projects a gain of R$ 23.76 billion by increasing taxation on those earning above R$ 50 thousand per month, and more R$ 6.18 billion with the collection of taxes on dividends sent abroad.
On paper, the net result is positive by around R$ 1.9 billion, allowing the government to say that the measure is “fiscally neutral” and still opens a small margin to compensate states or reduce, in the future, the rate of the new Contribution on Goods and Services (CBS).
In practice, however, the design makes it clear that someone is paying the bill for the generous exemption range.
High income, profits sent abroad, bets, fintechs, and crypto assets become the primary target, while the political discourse focuses on defending relief for the base of the pyramid.
Risks If Congress Does Not Deliver Everything
Behind the technical statements, the economic team knows that the plan has a fragile point: almost everything depends on voting in Congress until the end of 2025.
Without the approval of the central projects, the massive deficit does not disappear.
If the revenue-increasing measures are dematerialized or delayed, the government will have to make a tough choice: either revise the surplus target for 2026, or discuss new cuts in expenses and benefits, reigniting clashes with economic sectors and the Legislative itself.
For now, the official discourse is one of confidence in political negotiation and commitment to maintain the Income Tax exemption up to R$ 5 thousand, even with the challenge of finding the R$ 30 billion that are still missing.
But the final outcome will depend less on the Treasury’s spreadsheets and more on the math of votes in the chamber.
In your opinion, is the government dividing this massive deficit fairly, or is someone being left out of the equation and will end up paying more than they should?
-
3 pessoas reagiram a isso.