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Even with the global slowdown and the oil price down, the government wants to preserve Petrobras’ billion-dollar plan, which divides the board and advisors on the risks of indebtedness and financial return.
The government of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) and Petrobras’ management are facing a strategic impasse over the state company’s new investment plan, which is expected to cover the 2026 election period. While the Palácio do Planalto insists on maintaining billion-dollar investments, company executives advocate for a review in light of the fall in oil prices and the risk of financial overload.
According to the newspaper from Brasília, the divergence has become the main topic in the oil company’s board, which brings together representatives of the government and minority shareholders. Maintaining the pace of investments, even with lower revenue, can increase indebtedness and reduce dividend payments to the Union and private investors.
Oil Price Drop Reopens Debate on Profitability
The international context has been decisive for the debate. After the agreement between Israel and Hamas, the easing of tensions in the Middle East reduced the price of Brent crude oil, which closed last week at US$ 61.33, 16% below a year ago.
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Alert in the global energy market: Severe tropical cyclone hits the coast and disrupts gas production at major plants in Australia, threatening global supply.
The trade war between the United States and China also puts pressure on the market, with fears of a global slowdown and lower energy demand.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts a surplus in oil supply by 2026, which reinforces the concerns of Petrobras’ technical leadership.
Even so, the plan approved at the end of 2024 foresees US$ 111 billion in investments between 2025 and 2029, a 4.7% increase compared to the previous cycle.
Billion-Dollar Projections and Sustainability Dilemma
Out of the total projected, US$ 98 billion is already tied to ongoing projects, mainly in exploration and production, with secured financing.
Another US$ 13 billion still depends on financial viability assessment, including the sustainable aviation kerosene production project from ethanol.
Petrobras’ CEO, Magda Chambriard, argues that the state company must “adapt its strategic planning to the new market reality.”
In August, she stated that several mature projects have returned to the re-evaluation phase due to the lower oil price, even mentioning onshore operations in Bahia that had been reconsidered.
Lula Reinforces Discourse on Sovereignty and Job Creation
On the contrary, Lula emphasized that Petrobras has not yet reached its potential return to the country. During a speech in Bahia, he stated he has “conviction that the state-owned company must go beyond what it has already delivered to the Brazilian people.”
The president also resumed the defense of the national shipbuilding industry, recalling that he insisted, in previous administrations, on building rigs and vessels in Brazil as a way to generate jobs and technology.
“It’s easier to do it abroad, but I want jobs to be generated here, taxes to be generated here, and knowledge to be generated here,” declared the president.
The speech was attended by Chambriard, who has sought to balance political demands for investments with the financial prudence demanded by the market.
The internal debate at Petrobras has a direct impact on investors’ perception. Itaú BBA analysts classify the investment review as a central issue for stock performance in 2026.
Some of the market believes in inevitable cuts, while others bet that government pressure will keep the plan robust, even in the face of lower margins.
Petrobras’ financial director, Fernando Melgarejo, also reinforced the need for adjustments: “We will reassess all assumptions and identify viable projects.
Those that do not pass our standards will be postponed or reformulated.”
Petrobras faces the historical dilemma between social function and economic discipline. On one side, the government sees the company as an instrument for reindustrialization and energy policy; on the other, the market demands a focus on profitability and debt control.
The new investment plan for 2026–2030, to be defined by the end of the year, will test the balance between sovereignty and solvency.
Do you agree that Petrobras should maintain investments even with falling oil prices? Or do you believe that adjustments are essential to preserve the state company’s cash flow? Leave your opinion in the comments; we want to hear from those living this reality daily.
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