Portuguese 
English 
Spanish 
3 min of reading 
Contradicting the current scenario of falling fuel prices and a drop in revenue for companies in the sector, Ineep is projecting that Petrobras’ profits should reach R$ 60 billion in this second quarter.
This Wednesday’s scenario (07/27) is quite favorable for the oil and natural gas company Petrobras, since the Institute of Strategic Studies of Oil, Natural Gas, and Biofuels (Ineep) is forecasting profits of R$ 60 billion in the second quarter of this year. Even with the current scenario of falling fuel prices throughout Brazil, the state-owned company is still expected to maintain its average billion-dollar profit and keep its leadership in the country.
Petrobras Profits Should Overcome the Falling Fuel Prices Scenario and Reach R$ 60 Billion in the Second Quarter of This Year, Says Ineep
The national fuel sector is now witnessing a decrease in product prices across the country, driven by the reduction of the Tax on Circulation of Goods and Services (ICMS) on fuels in national states. This is a move by the Federal Government that results in losses of R$ 80 billion to the entities, hindering investments in health and education, among other sectors, but companies in the sector will still continue to receive their profits on schedule.
This is because, according to Ineep’s projections, Petrobras’ profits, the largest fuel company in Brazil, should not be affected by the reduction in fuel prices in the country. Of the revenue generated by the company, a total of 37% will go to the federal government, while the other 63% will be reserved for private shareholders, 40% of whom are not Brazilian.
-
Lula reveals a masterstroke by Petrobras to undo a deal made by Bolsonaro, which involves the return of an important refinery that currently produces less than half of what was expected and makes Brazil dependent on international diesel.
-
A study confirms that the natural gas sector will reduce greenhouse gas emissions in Brazil by 0.5% and accelerate the energy transition by 2026.
-
Petrobras implements a severe adjustment and confirms a 55% increase in the price of aviation kerosene with a proposal for installment payments for the companies.
-
The rise in oil prices could ensure an extra revenue of R$ 100 billion for the Federal Government, indicates a recent economic study.
Thus, the State will receive the smallest share of the amounts, which prompted President Jair Bolsonaro to seek the early payment of dividends for the year 2023.
Ineep’s forecasts indicate that Petrobras’ net income is expected to range between R$ 44.2 billion and R$ 60.4 billion in the second quarter of this year, a jump of up to 40% compared to the same period in 2021 (from R$ 43 billion). Therefore, the amount paid to shareholders is expected to be between approximately R$ 47 billion and R$ 58 billion, but the state-owned company will only disclose the final prices this coming Thursday, after a meeting with the company’s board of directors.
The Dollar Exchange Rate Regarding Fuel Prices in Brazil Is Still the Main Driver of the High Profits That the State-Owned Company Will Achieve in This Second Half
Ineep commented on how Petrobras managed to navigate the scenario of falling fuel prices in Brazil and will achieve high profits in 2022 and stated that the main driver for this is the fuel price charged to consumers and companies in Brazil, based on the dollar exchange rate, although the entire extraction, labor, and refining process is conducted domestically.
This is because, since 2016, Petrobras has adopted the so-called Import Parity Price (IPP) policy, which passes the international market fluctuations of oil directly to the Brazilian consumer, in addition to considering the logistics costs of imports.
Thus, the final fuel prices in Brazil tend to become increasingly higher, and even though there has been a significant drop in values, revenues still follow this pricing policy, bringing high profits to the company.
“In summary, we will likely see history repeat itself in another quarter of great profits for Petrobras. And huge dividend payments for shareholders, to the detriment of the consumer,” Ineep commented in a recent statement.
Seja o primeiro a reagir!