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With Investments of $99 Billion, PPSA Estimates Revenue of About $116 Billion from Union Oil Commercialization, and Brazil Will Need 27 FPSOs by 2031 to Develop Its Offshore Hydrocarbon Reserves

Written by Flavia Marinho
Published on 25/11/2021 at 11:45
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Contracts for Oil Exploration in Ultra Deep Water in the Pre-Salt Will Generate USD 285 Billion for Brazil in 10 Years

Brazil will need 27 FPSOs between 2022 and 2031 to develop its offshore hydrocarbon reserves under the production sharing regime, according to a study published yesterday, November 25, by the state-owned Pré-Sal Petróleo (PPSA).

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About USD 33 billion will be needed to hire and deploy the platforms over a period of 10 years, while another USD 29 billion will need to be invested in underwater systems plus USD 37 billion in 416 offshore wells, according to the report.

Production Sharing Contracts Include Exploratory Blocks, Oil and Gas Fields in Ultra Deep Water of the Pre-Salt

The production sharing contracts include exploratory blocks and oil and gas fields located within the pre-salt polygon, an area of 150,000 km2 located off the southeastern coast of the country.

Created in November 2013, PPSA is responsible for managing production sharing contracts, marketing oil and natural gas, and representing the country in unification agreements (necessary when a hydrocarbon field exceeds the limits of a production sharing contract and overlaps with a concession or transfer of rights contract).

There are currently 20 areas contracted under the production sharing regime: Búzios (excess volumes), Itapu, Libra, Mero, South of Gato do Mato, Northeast of Sapinhoá, Northwest of Sapinhoá, Southwest of Sapinhoá, North of Carcará, Bacalhau Norte, Peroba, Alto de Cabo Frio Oeste, Uirapuru, Dois Irmãos, Três Marias, Saturno, Titã, Pau-Brasil, Southwest of Tartaruga Verde and Aram.

Production Sharing Contracts (PPSA)

According to the latest data from the ANP regulator, active production sharing fields (Búzios, Northeast of Sapinhoá, Northwest of Sapinhoá, Southwest of Sapinhoá and Mero) produced 440,000 bep/d in October, equivalent to 17% of the total volume of Brazilian pre-salt, which reaches 2.64 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (Mbep/d).

PPSA estimates that production from production sharing contracts will reach 3.48 Mbep/d in 2031, with 70% of this volume corresponding to projects with a formalized commerciality declaration. These include, for example, the four final production systems from Petrobras’ Mero field (FPSO Guanabara, Sepetiba, Marechal Duque de Caxias, and Alexandre de Gusmão), which are expected to go into operation between 2022 and 2025.

In the next 10 years, the accumulated production from the contracts is estimated at 8.2 billion barrels (Mb) of oil. Of this total, the accumulated share of the Federal Government will be approximately 1,500 Mb, which would represent USD 116 billion in revenue, according to the report.

By 2031, the Daily Average Production of All Contracts Will Be Approximately 3.5 Million Barrels per Day (bpd), Equivalent to Two-Thirds of Brazil’s Oil Production

By 2031, the daily average production of all contracts will be approximately 3.5 million barrels per day (bpd), equivalent to two-thirds of the national production estimated by the Energy Research Company (EPE) for that year. In 2022, the first year of the period analyzed in this edition of the study, the Union’s oil share will be 24,000 bpd. By 2031, production is estimated to be around 1 million barrels per day.

“Today, there are four contracts in production, and as of September, our latest data indicates that the Union’s share was 11,000 barrels of oil per day. We are talking about having 1 million barrels per day in ten years. And the most important thing: the study predicts that 70% of the accumulated production by 2031 will come from areas that already have a commerciality declaration. The outlook is very promising,” says Gerk.

The study also projects that by 2031, the production sharing contracts will generate revenue of USD 92 billion in royalties and USD 77 billion in Corporate Income Tax (IRPJ) and Social Contribution on Net Profit (CSLL). Adding the projected revenue of USD 116 billion from the commercialization of the Union’s oil share, the total estimated revenue for public coffers is USD 285 billion in 10 years.

A Total of 27 FPSOs (Floating Production Storage and Offloading Units) and 416 Wells Are Expected to Be Contracted.

For the development of activities in the Pre-Salt Polygon, investments of USD 99 billion are planned until 2031. Of this total, USD 33 billion should be invested in production platforms; USD 37 billion in wells; and USD 29 billion in underwater systems.

A total of 27 FPSOs (floating production storage and offloading units) and 416 wells are expected to be contracted.

Access the Study Estimates of Results in Production Sharing Contracts

Flavia Marinho

Flavia Marinho é Engenheira pós-graduada, com vasta experiência na indústria de construção naval onshore e offshore. Nos últimos anos, tem se dedicado a escrever artigos para sites de notícias nas áreas militar, segurança, indústria, petróleo e gás, energia, construção naval, geopolítica, empregos e cursos. Entre em contato com flaviacamil@gmail.com ou WhatsApp +55 21 973996379 para correções, sugestão de pauta, divulgação de vagas de emprego ou proposta de publicidade em nosso portal.

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