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Bus Fare Raises IPCA-15 in BH and Pressures Inflation. Furniture Sector May Feel Impact from Rain.
Inflation in BH gained momentum in February after the rise of IPCA-15, released this Friday (27) by IBGE.
The index rose 0.95% in the Metropolitan Region, placing the capital of Minas Gerais among the highest increases in the country.
The main reason was the adjustment of the bus fare, which directly impacted consumers’ wallets.
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Additionally, the rains in the Zona da Mata raised an alert for the furniture sector, which may face cost increases in the coming weeks.
The result represents a significant acceleration compared to January, when the index was 0.23%.
As a result, the region trailed only São Paulo (1.09%) and Fortaleza (1.02%) among the areas surveyed.
Bus Fare Leads Pressure on IPCA-15 and Inflation in BH
Public transport was the main driver of the rise in IPCA-15.
The 8.6% adjustment in the bus fare, in effect since January, had a decisive weight in the calculation.
According to the chief economist of BDMG, Izak Silva, “we had the largest public transport fare adjustment in the country, and this causes us to see a rise in this group, driven by this seasonal movement.”
Since transport has a strong participation in families’ budgets, the impact is immediate on inflation in BH.
Thus, even variations concentrated in a single item can elevate the overall index.
Education Rises More, but with Less Impact on IPCA-15
The Education group recorded the largest monthly variation, with a rise of 3.93%.
However, the effect on IPCA-15 was smaller because the weight of this group is more limited.
The economist from Fiemg, João Gabriel Pio, explained that “the increases are associated with the adjustments of prices for regular courses practiced at the beginning of the school year (4.89%), which typically tend to significantly influence the IPCA in February.”
Even so, the increase was below the national average, which was 5.2%.
Food Feels Impact of Rain and Reinforces Inflation in BH
The Food and Beverage group also contributed to inflation in BH, with an increase of 0.3%. The index was above the national rate, which was 0.2%.
According to Izak Silva, the increase is linked to products more sensitive to the weather.
“Fruits and vegetables had higher prices due to the increased incidence of rain,” he stated.
Tubers, roots, and leafy vegetables, which have seasonal behavior, were the main contributors to the pressure.
Housing Rises with Rents and Fees
Housing rose 0.86% in the region, contrary to the national scenario of relief in electricity bills due to the green flag.
In practice, the positive effect of electricity was compensated by the rise in rents and fees, which increased by 1.9%.
Additionally, there was an announcement of an average adjustment of 6.56% in water bills, the highest in the country so far.
This movement reinforces the persistence of inflation in BH in the short term.
Zona da Mata May Increase Costs for Furniture Sector
Another point of concern is the Household Articles group, which rose 1.2%, with a highlight on the Furniture subgroup (1.5%).
The trend is for acceleration due to rain in the Zona da Mata.
The region of Ubá is one of the main hubs of the furniture sector in Brazil.
According to Izak Silva, “we should expect rising prices, because the region of Ubá in the Zona da Mata is an important furniture hub and has been significantly affected by the rains this week.”
With production compromised, supply tends to decrease, which may pressure prices in the coming months.
Services Pressure and May Affect Interest Rates
In the national scenario, the IPCA-15 of 0.84% came in above expectations, especially in the services sector.
For João Gabriel Pio, this result may influence monetary policy.
“This reading will be interpreted by the Central Bank as a signal of more persistent inflation, which may lead to greater caution in the cycle of lowering the Selic rate throughout the year,” he assessed.
In other words, interest rates may take longer to drop.
Inflation in BH Exceeds National Average for the Year
In the accumulated figure for 2026, the IPCA-15 for the region already totals 1.18%, above the national index of 1.04%.
The result places Belo Horizonte among the three highest increases in the country.
On the other hand, in the accumulated figure for 12 months, inflation in BH remains more controlled, at 3.75%, below Brazil’s 4.1%.
According to Izak Silva, this indicates a movement of convergence. “We are approaching Brazil’s rate, which temporarily increases local inflation.
But this is not yet a concerning signal because, looking at the long term, we have a lower level of inflation than the national average.”
What to Expect from IPCA-15 in the Coming Months
The combination of more expensive transport, climate-sensitive food, and possible impact on the furniture sector keeps the alert for the trajectory of IPCA-15.
If the rains in the Zona da Mata continue to affect production, pressure may spread to other durable goods.
See more at: Increase in Bus Fare Pressures IPCA-15 in BH
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