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– You Are About to Discover Everything an Investor Needs to Know Before Trading This Week. This Content Will Provide Valuable Information for Success in Trades.
In the Eurozone economic bloc, the first notable data to be released will be the economic confidence indicator, with information referring to the month of November, on Wednesday, along with Germany’s consumer price index. The release of Germany’s unemployment rate for November is scheduled for Thursday, and on the same day, the consumer price index and unemployment rate for the Eurozone will also be presented.
On Friday, the PMI S&P Global manufacturing index for November is expected to be released for both the Eurozone and the United Kingdom and Germany. This data is of utmost importance for understanding the current economic situation and anticipating potential future trends.
Release of Economic Data in the United States
On the following day, data on personal income and personal spending for the month of October will be released, with LSEG estimating a 0.2% increase from the previous month for both variables. Additionally, the PCE deflator will be released on the same day.
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A study confirms that the natural gas sector will reduce greenhouse gas emissions in Brazil by 0.5% and accelerate the energy transition by 2026.
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Petrobras implements a severe adjustment and confirms a 55% increase in the price of aviation kerosene with a proposal for installment payments for the companies.
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The rise in oil prices could ensure an extra revenue of R$ 100 billion for the Federal Government, indicates a recent economic study.
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Naturgy begins an investment of R$ 1.6 million to expand the gas network in Niterói and benefit thousands of new residences and businesses.
On Friday, being the first day of the month, the Payroll numbers will be released, one of the most important metrics for analyzing the labor market situation in the country.
In North America, the last week was shortened, with the stock markets closing on Thursday (23) due to the Thanksgiving holiday, and an early closure at 3 PM on Friday (24).
The coming days will be marked by the release of the Conference Board consumer confidence indexes on Tuesday. The week gains momentum on Wednesday with the publication of the second estimate of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the third quarter, with a forecast of a 5.0% growth compared to the previous quarter, in addition to data on the Trade Balance and the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book.
Moreover, the focus is also on strengthening a proposal that restricts companies’ ability to deduct state tax benefits from the base calculation for federal taxes, known as the “subsidy project.” This is one of the key elements on the agenda of the Ministry of Finance and will be closely monitored by the market.
Lastly, changes are occurring in some states in the Southeast and South to increase the modal rate of ICMS, aiming to recover state revenue in the short term and neutralize potential losses resulting from the ICMS reform.
Banco Itaú is hopeful that discussions regarding the proposal for changes in the taxation of offshore and exclusive funds will progress, as well as the advancement of negotiations on the sports betting bill.
“According to projections from the economic team, these measures have the potential to generate an increase of R$ 22 billion in revenue in 2024, an amount deemed crucial by management to achieve the goal of zero deficit in 2024. Both issues have the possibility of advancing, with the prospect of a final vote in the plenary next week,” highlights the financial institution.
Report on Primary Revenues and Expenditures Assessment
In the political sphere, last week the Report on Primary Revenues and Expenditures was released, which increased the primary deficit to R$ 177 billion.
According to Bradesco, “Our projection indicates a primary deficit slightly lower than that presented in the report. This is due to the high likelihood that some discretionary expenses will end up being postponed. Regarding mandatory expenses, our numbers are close to those indicated by the government.”
Bradesco’s projection indicates a primary deficit slightly lower than that presented in the report, based on the possibility of some discretionary expenses being postponed and numbers close to the mandatory expenses indicated by the government.
The week will end with more information from FGV, such as the economic uncertainty indicator on Thursday and the business confidence index on Friday. Additionally, the Monthly Industrial Survey from IBGE will be released, along with the PMI index for the manufacturing sector.
The releases will be finalized with the presentation of the Trade Balance for November. Itaú expects a surplus of US$ 9 billion, similar to October and much larger than the surplus of 6.2 billion in November 2022. The numbers of vehicle registrations will also be released by Fenabrave.
On Wednesday, the Getúlio Vargas Foundation (FGV) will release the General Price Index – Market (IGP-M) and the results of the services and commerce surveys for the month of November. On the same day, the General Register of Employed and Unemployed (Caged) will present formal employment data. On Thursday, it will be time to learn about the unemployment rate, data provided by the Continuous National Household Sample Survey (PNAD Continuous).
According to projections from Banco Itaú, for Caged, the creation of 125 thousand formal jobs is expected, compared to the 211 thousand recorded in September. When seasonally adjusted, Caged is expected to reach 106 thousand, compared to 115 thousand from the previous month. Regarding the unemployment rate, an increase to 7.8% is anticipated, compared to the previous 7.7% (seasonally adjusted to 8.0%).
Additionally, on Tuesday, the numbers from the industry survey by FGV and the primary result of the government will be released, with Bradesco’s expectation of R$ 15.8 billion.
“We anticipate a surplus of R$ 18.3 billion. In addition, the data on tax collection for October (previously scheduled to be released on November 20) may be published throughout the week, and we estimate a result of R$ 212.7 billion,” emphasizes the economic team at Itaú. **These forecasts are important for tracking the current economic scenario**.
IPCA-15 for November: Anticipated Increase and Impact on the Conjunctural Data of the Last Quarter of the Year
The most awaited data of the week will be announced on Tuesday by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE), the IPCA-15 for November. Bradesco forecasts a 0.35% increase in the monthly comparison, while Itaú estimates that the increase could be 0.29%, resulting in a decrease in the annual rate to 4.8% from 5.0% observed in October.
Despite a more pressured number than that recorded in October due to food at home, the data will maintain a benign trajectory for inflation, with well-behaved core and services. Bradesco highlights that regarding activity, the industrial production for October should remain practically stable, marking the start of monitoring the conjunctural data for the last quarter of the year. **In terms of activity, the highlight is the industrial production for October, which is expected to remain virtually unchanged, marking the beginning of conjunctural data for the last quarter of the year**.
The last week was characterized by the rejection of payroll tax relief and a less lively Black Friday, contributing to the decline of the Ibovespa on Friday. With a lighter agenda, next week will bring important economic indicators in Brazil, such as the IPCA-15, industrial production data, and CAGED.
On Monday, the Getúlio Vargas Foundation (FGV) will present the INCC-M for November and the Construction Survey for November. Additionally, the National Confederation of Industry (CNI) will publish the sectoral results for November, and the Treasury will present the monthly report on the federal public debt. The expectation is that this data will provide more insights into the country’s economic scenario, impacting various sectors.
Source: InfoMoney
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