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Polling In January 2025 Shows Lula In The Lead In All Electoral Scenarios, But With Strong Rejection. Will He Be Able To Stay On Top Or Will New Alliances And Political Figures Change The Game? Find Out The Details Of The Most Heated Electoral Dispute In Brazil!
The year 2025 promises to be a time of great political movements in Brazil.
In a hypothetical scenario of presidential elections, a recently released poll points to an interesting phenomenon: Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, the current president of Brazil, leads all simulations of voter intention.
With the electoral scene heating up, what can we expect from the upcoming disputes?
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Lula Maintains Comfortable Lead, But New Political Figures Emerge
According to a Genial/Quest poll conducted between January 21 and 23, 2025, Lula Achieved 30% Of The Voting Intentions in the stimulated scenario, where voters are presented with the names of possible candidates.
The poll also highlights other names, such as Tarcísio de Freitas, governor of São Paulo, who appears with 13%, followed by singer Gusttavo Lima (12%) and former presidential candidate Pablo Marçal, who shows up with 11%.
The dispute is tight, but the candidate from the Workers’ Party remains ahead.
In the spontaneous scenario, where voters choose without a prior list of candidates, Lula ties with former president Jair Bolsonaro, both with 9% of the voting intentions.
This shows a division of the electorate, which still demonstrates a strong polarization among the most influential political figures in the country.
The Poll And Its Impact On The 2025 Elections
Conducted with 4,500 people across the country, the poll has a margin of error of 1 percentage point, plus or minus, and a confidence level of 95%.
With this data, it is possible to observe that, although Lula’s popularity is high, there is a significant fragmentation in the political field, indicating that the 2025 scenario will be very dynamic and with new possibilities for alliances and disputes.
In the various scenarios presented by the poll, Lula remains ahead, even with the inclusion of new candidates.
In scenario 1, for example, the former president leads with 30% of the voting intentions, followed by Tarcísio de Freitas with 13%, Gusttavo Lima with 12%, and Pablo Marçal with 11%.
In scenario 2, without Tarcísio’s presence, Lula would have 28% of the votes, while other names like Gusttavo Lima and Marçal each have 12%.
Other Scenarios Reveal Greater Competition
In scenario 3, which excludes Tarcísio and Eduardo Bolsonaro, the competition becomes tighter.
Lula’s voting intention increases to 32%, but Marçal and Ciro Gomes also gain traction, reaching 14% and 12%, respectively.
In scenario 4, without the participation of Tarcísio, Eduardo Bolsonaro, and Marçal, Lula reaches 33% of the voting intentions, with Gusttavo Lima leading the others at 18%.
In all scenarios, the presence of undecided and null votes is significant, varying between 14% and 25%. This reflects an electorate that is still unstable and sensitive to the political movements that will occur throughout the year.
What Do The Second Round Scenarios Say?
The poll also simulates possible second-round confrontations, and the results are intriguing. In all direct confrontation scenarios, Lula emerges victorious.
In a confrontation against Gusttavo Lima, for instance, the former president would have 41% of the voting intentions, compared to 35% for the singer. Against Eduardo Bolsonaro, Lula would have 44%, while Jair Bolsonaro’s son would have 34%.
In disputes with Pablo Marçal and Tarcísio de Freitas, Lula also leads with 44% and 43%, respectively.
The simulations indicate that, in a possible second round, the former president has a considerable advantage over his opponents.
Rejection And Vote Potential: An Analysis Of Voting Intentions
Another important point of the poll was the analysis of the rejection of each candidate.
In the case of Lula, 49% of voters said that “they know and would not vote” for him, a significant number that reflects the political polarization in Brazil.
The rejection of other candidates is also relevant, such as that of Jair Bolsonaro (53%), Ciro Gomes (52%), and Gustavo Lima (50%).
Although rejection is high, the “vote potential” is still significant for some of these names, indicating that many voters may be willing to change their minds as the election approaches.
This demonstrates that the electoral scenario is still far from being definitive.
The Future Of Brazil And What Could Change By 2026
With the electoral scenario of 2025 still very fluid and with many variables, the race for votes promises to be one of the most intense in Brazil’s recent history.
What the polls do not fully capture is the impact of political alliances that may arise, the unexpected events that mark national politics, and the behavior of the electorate, which can change drastically in the following weeks or months.
With the 2026 election on the horizon, Brazil may experience a period of significant political transformations, and the January 2025 poll is just a temporary snapshot of what the future holds for us.
What we can say is that the central figures of Brazilian politics – including Lula himself, but also new names – will continue to be protagonists in a heated contest for an increasingly divided Brazil.
Do You Believe That Lula Really Has A Chance To Secure A Fourth Term As President Of Brazil?
Jornalista meia pataca, vai plantar batatas narrador de cordel!
Acredito que diante do cenário mundial atual, apesar das investidas de Trump, o Governo Lula nos últimos dois anos de mandato consolidará um período de crescimento econômico acima de 3% ao ano e de crescimento da riqueza com melhora de sua distribuição e de avanços sociais que lhe permitirão concorrer e ganhar novamente a eleição de para Presidência.