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For The First Time In A Decade, Oil Surpasses Soybean And Takes The Top Of Brazilian Exports. With Growing Production And Sustainable Characteristics, The Pre-Salt Places Brazil Among Global Market Giants. Will Soybean Be Able To Regain The Throne Or Has Oil Come To Dominate Forever?
Who would have thought that Brazil, a giant known for its vast soybean and sugarcane plantations, would see oil take the position of absolute leader in exports?
The product, which had occupied secondary positions for years, has left soybean’s hegemony behind and reached the top spot in revenue for the first time in recent history.
Behind this transformation is a combination of factors ranging from high global demand to the efficiency of domestic production. But what does this change mean for the country’s economic future?
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For the total of 2024, oil surpassed soybean as Brazil’s main export product, reaching record revenues.
According to data from the Secretariat of Foreign Trade (Secex), from January to November of this year, the country exported 85.45 million tons of oil, an increase of 14.4% compared to the same period in 2023.
In financial terms, this represented US$ 42.76 billion in revenues, surpassing the US$ 42.08 billion generated by soybean.
This historic milestone reflects an unprecedented scenario in over a decade, during which the oilseed dominated Brazilian export agendas.
The Unexpected Leadership Of Oil
Although oil had threatened to lead in previous years, there was always another competitor that surpassed it, like iron ore.
This time, however, the increase in production and specific characteristics of Brazilian oil were decisive, as noted by Roberto Ardenghy, president of the Brazilian Petroleum and Gas Institute (IBP).
He explained that oil extracted from the pre-salt emits less CO₂ compared to that from other countries, meeting the increasing decarbonization demands of the international market.
Soybean, on the other hand, faced a difficult harvest due to drought, with shipments falling by 1.3% during the same period.
Additionally, soybean prices fell by 17%, further harming its competitiveness.
National Production On The Rise
Brazil ends 2024 with a prominent position in the global oil market.
The country’s production already exceeds 3.5 million barrels per day and is expected to surpass 4 million by 2025, according to projections from IBP.
Major investments in the pre-salt, led by Petrobras and other companies in the sector, could raise production to more than 5 million barrels daily by 2030.
This trajectory places Brazil among the top five global producers, potentially surpassing countries like Iraq and China.
“We are experiencing a very significant ramp-up moment in oil production.
It’s something that is set to continue in the coming years, considering global demand and the competitiveness of our product”, said Ardenghy.
Why Is Brazilian Oil So Competitive?
The oil extracted from the Brazilian pre-salt has a characteristic that makes it extremely desirable in the international market: low carbon intensity.
National production emits, on average, less than 20 kg of CO₂ per barrel of oil equivalent, while in Canada, for example, this number reaches 45 kg.
This caters to the demands of refineries and petrochemical plants seeking more sustainable sources.
Moreover, the growing global demand for oil, especially in Asian markets, is expected to sustain the pace of Brazilian exports in the coming years.
Even with discussions about energy transition, the expectation is that oil consumption will remain high in the medium term.
Can Soybean Still Regain Its Position?
Despite losing leadership, soybean is not out of the game. The sector expects an increase of over 10% in production in 2025, driven by the recovery of productivity.
However, surpassing oil will be a challenge, especially if soybean prices do not recover.
In the meantime, oil consolidates itself as a key player in the Brazilian economy, representing not only a significant source of revenue but also a strategic advantage in the global energy landscape.
What do you think about this historic change? Will oil remain the absolute leader, or does soybean have a chance to regain its position in the coming years? Leave your opinion in the comments!
O Brasil exporta soja, mas não importa soja para substituir a que exportou. O Brasil exporta petróleo pesado por não ter refinarias para processar este tipo de óleo e importa petróleo leve para substituir grande parte daquele que foi exportado. Sendo assim, julgo que a soja ainda é financeiramente bem mais relevante do que o petróleo.
Na Arabia nem água tem e é um dos países mais ricos,aqui só sobra a divida pra pagar
Mesmo assim o Brasil ainda continua um pais pobre