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Many Wonder If There Will Be Enough Oil to Supply the World or If the Known Black Gold Is Starting to Show Signs of Production Decline
Oil powers 99% of the world’s vehicles, meaning one-third of everything that uses electricity. Today, humanity uses just under 100 million barrels of oil per day. This is enough to fill the storage tanks of nearly 50 large crude oil tankers, the largest type of cargo vessel in the world, measuring three football fields long. At the current price of crude oil at $67 a barrel, the global oil market is worth $2.4 trillion per year, 14 times larger than the gold market and 21 times larger than iron ore. The oil market is nearly four times larger than all other natural resource markets combined.
Asia Is Driving Oil Consumption
Although commercially exploited for nearly a century, oil consumption, despite all the hybrid cars you see on the highway, is still increasing. It has grown by 24% over the last 15 years, but this growth is not coming from developed countries. During this period, U.S. oil consumption dropped from 20 million to 19.9 million bpd. In Europe, the increase is 3.4%, to 15 million bpd. In Asia, the story is different; China more than doubled its oil consumption over the last 15 years, from 5.8 million bpd to 12.8 million bpd. India saw its oil consumption soar from just 2.3 million bpd to 4.7 million bpd last year.
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Demand Now Exceeds Supply
With the increase in consumption in Asia, global oil demand rose by 6.9% from 2014 to 2017, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). Meanwhile, supply increased by 6.7% per year. In the fourth quarter of 2017, there was a daily production shortfall of 350,000 barrels, also according to the IEA. In that same quarter, oil prices rose by 16.8%. In the future, the IEA expects global demand to increase to 104.7 million bpd by 2023 – a 7% increase from current levels. And half of that increase will be driven by China and India, two major economies that consume far more oil than they produce domestically, pushing their imports to record levels. From just over 8 million bpd last year, China’s oil imports are expected to reach 10 million bpd by 2023. China’s increase in oil imports alone will account for 30% of the global demand increase over the next six years. It is expected to surpass the U.S. to become the world’s second-largest oil importer by 2023, with nearly 5 million bpd.
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