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Sector Achieves Historical Record of Developments, But Faces Structural Deceleration Marked by Closed Stores, Concentrated Consumption, and the Migration of the Public to Digital
The shopping malls in Brazil live in a paradox. On one hand, they continue to inaugurate new developments and expand commercial areas. On the other, they face reduced foot traffic, high delinquency rates, and an increasingly digital consumer. The apparent expansion of the sector masks a gradual emptying process that is already affecting both large capitals and medium-sized cities, revealing a business model that is trying to reinvent itself before it becomes obsolete.
In 2024, the country surpassed the mark of 640 shopping malls distributed across 249 municipalities, the highest number in history. However, the monthly visitor flow has dropped from 502 million to 476 million since 2019, according to data from Abrasce. The average occupancy is still around 95%, but this balance is maintained at the cost of renegotiations, masked vacancies, and the migration of traditional stores to hybrid service and convenience formats.
The Apparent Expansion and the Real Shrinking
The race for new openings created the illusion of growth. In 2024, nine new shopping malls were opened, and another 17 are expected in 2025.
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The number is impressive, but the economic performance reveals the opposite. Revenue is expected to grow only 1.6% in 2025, below the projected inflation of 3.5% by the Central Bank.
What seems like prosperity is, in practice, a portrait of survival. The sector is sustained by higher-income classes, while consumption among middle and lower-income groups is shrinking.
Sales in classes A and B grew by about 10% in 2024, but the rest of the public has lost purchasing power.
The consumer confidence index ended September 2025 at 87.5 points, one of the lowest levels since the pandemic, reinforcing the scenario of restricted and cautious consumption.
The Silent Collapse of the Anchor Model
The balance of shopping malls in Brazil depends on the so-called anchor stores — large fashion, sports, and entertainment chains that attract foot traffic to other satellite stores.
When an anchor closes, the entire corridor loses vitality. The same phenomenon that devastated physical retail in the United States is beginning to repeat itself here.
In recent years, traditional chains have reduced profits and store space, while e-commerce has tripled in volume, jumping from R$ 87 billion in 2020 to R$ 262 billion in 2024.
The consumer who once roamed the corridors now shops with a click, and physical foot traffic has become a consequence of digital, not the other way around.
The Mall as a Time-Rental Organism
In light of the emptying, shopping malls have started to reconfigure their spaces. Medical clinics, gyms, schools, and coworking offices replace showcases and mannequins.
From 2020 to 2024, the number of service operations within shopping centers grew by 42%, and the convenience sector now accounts for over 10% of stores.
The mall has become multifunctional infrastructure, where consumption shares space with health, education, and leisure.
The model of “shopping plaza” is transforming into a permanence ecosystem, in which visitors consume fewer products but spend more time. Monetization shifts from the storefront to the occupied square meter.
Luxury Resists and Mass Retail Collapses
While the center of the sector shrinks, the top of the pyramid strengthens. JHSF, owner of Shopping Cidade Jardim, reported a 17% increase in the second quarter of 2025, driven by a jump of 26.9% in premium brand sales.
Luxury has become the last refuge of confidence. Rolex, Dior, and Prada are replacing former anchors of popular retail.
In shopping malls aimed at middle-class consumers, the movement is the opposite. Delinquency is rising, foot traffic is decreasing, and technical vacancies are increasing, even though official numbers still indicate high occupancy.
The public that sustained regular consumption has migrated to e-commerce and to more accessible leisure experiences outside the controlled environment of shopping centers.
The Advances of Real Estate Funds and the Financialization of the Crisis
While retailers attempt to survive, shopping real estate funds are gaining value amid the restructuring. In 2025, the sector index on the B3 rose by 18.4%, outperforming the average performance of other real estate funds.
Large managers took advantage of the devaluation cycle to buy discounted assets, transforming what could be a crisis into an opportunity for real estate profitability.
XP Malls sold nine developments for R$ 1.6 billion, RBR Asset and Pátria Investimentos expanded their portfolios, and further acquisitions are expected while physical retail attempts to recover.
It is an asymmetric game: financial profit grows while actual commerce shrinks.
The New Role of Shopping Malls in Brazil
The shopping malls in Brazil have ceased to be temples of consumption and have become convenience platforms. The public no longer goes just to shop, but to get a haircut, dine, handle paperwork, or work out.
The physical space survives by transforming desire into service, and each idle square meter is converted into a clinic, school, or restaurant.
Reinvention requires high investments and time. Many regional centers will not manage to adapt, becoming “dead malls”, spaces with no foot traffic and occupancy below 40%.
But those who understand the new cycle of fragmented and hybrid consumption can be reborn as useful urban structures, connecting leisure, health, technology, and community.
The scenario of shopping malls in Brazil reveals a sector that is trying to reinvent itself while the consumer redefines what it means to “go shopping.”
The future is no longer in the storefronts, but in the ability to offer experiences and utilities in a space that once sold only products.
Do you believe that shopping malls will be able to adapt durably to the new digital behavior of the Brazilian consumer or are we just delaying the inevitable collapse of the traditional physical model?
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