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Text Approved In The Chamber In October 2025 Reduces Minimum Age, Expands Benefits And Raises Fiscal Alert In The Ministry Of Social Security
The Proposed Amendment to the Constitution (PEC) that changes the retirement rules for health and epidemic control agents has become the new focus of political tension in Brasília.
Approved by the Chamber of Deputies on October 7, 2025, the proposal could generate a minimum impact of R$ 24.72 billion over ten years, according to the Ministry of Social Security.
According to the agency, current revenues total R$ 22.92 billion, while expenses reach R$ 82.38 billion, resulting in a deficit of R$ 59.46 billion.
With the new PEC, revenues drop to R$ 16.98 billion and expenses rise to R$ 101.16 billion, increasing the total shortfall to R$ 84.18 billion.
The estimated increase of R$ 24.72 billion raises alarm bells in the federal government and concerns economic area technicians.
The Ministry of Social Security warns that the impact may grow if transition rules are applied and parity is extended to retirees.
These conditions, according to the ministry, worsen the financial imbalance in the short, medium, and long term, affecting the country’s social security planning.
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Direct Changes To Retirement And Transition Rules
The new PEC reduces the minimum retirement age for health agents to 57 years for women and 60 years for men.
Both will need to prove 25 years of contribution according to the approved text.
In addition, the project creates transition rules until 2041, establishing that, in the first five years, women will be able to retire at 50 years and men at 52 years.
This age will gradually increase until it reaches the definitive limit.
The text also reestablishes full retirement — the total payment of the position’s remuneration — and parity, with adjustments equal to active servers.
These benefits apply to those who joined before the amendment was promulgated.
On the other hand, the PEC prohibits temporary and outsourced hires, except in public health emergency situations.
All agents must be regularized by December 31, 2028, according to the approved legal schedule.
Deficit Estimates And Municipal Impacts
The Ministry of Social Security estimates that the actuarial deficit caused by the PEC could reach R$ 28.72 billion.
The amount considers a 5% annual discount rate and a horizon of 75 years of obligations.
However, independent experts project an impact exceeding R$ 50 billion if new concessions are added.
The National Confederation of Municipalities (CNM), in a statement issued on October 9, 2025, estimates an even greater impact.
According to the entity, the cost could reach R$ 69.9 billion, considering the average anticipation of eight years in retirement and the increase in future expenses.
CNM stated that it will act in the Federal Senate to try to block the text, warning that the measure could cause a collapse in municipal budgets and compromise the public health system.
Political Reactions And Disputes Between The Powers
Behind the scenes, government technicians classify the PEC as a bombshell measure.
They claim that the proposal cancels part of the progress made with the social security reform of 2019 and stimulates pressures from other categories.
In addition, members of the economic team believe that the text makes it more difficult to meet fiscal targets and increases the rigidity of the public budget.
Allied base sources say that the approval was driven by a strong political motivation.
The episode occurred shortly after the fall of the tax measure on October 8, 2025, which anticipated tax increases and could generate R$ 35 billion in revenue in the following year.
Deputies from the Centrão admit that the movement was a response to the Planalto and had electoral weight looking ahead to 2026.
The reporter of the PEC, Deputy Antônio Brito (PSD-BA), denies that it is a bombshell measure.
He states that the real cost is R$ 5.5 billion over five years, and asserts that the proposal represents “recognition of the category that supported the country during the pandemic”.
The Workers’ Party (PT) supported the text, and the government released the bench, dividing opinions within the allied base.
Uncertainty In The Senate And Risk Of Increased Impact
Now, the proposal goes to the Federal Senate, where it will face strong political and technical resistance.
Senators signal their intention to exclude the rules of full retirement and parity, classified as having the greatest fiscal impact.
These provisions had been eliminated by the social security reform of 2003, during Lula’s first government.
Even so, social security technicians warn that, without financial compensations, the text will continue generating substantial increases in public spending.
Economists believe that the country will need to choose between sustaining privileges or protecting the balance of social security accounts.
With an estimated impact of R$ 24.72 billion and risk of a cascading effect, the PEC has become one of the greatest fiscal challenges of 2025.
In light of this deadlock, the question remains: will the Senate be able to contain the political pressure and prevent the social security deficit from growing even further?
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