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The First Quarter Of 2022 Began With Good News For The Brazilian Economy With Positive Results From Several Companies After The Pandemic
The 34th edition of the global investment report by Janus Henderson Group was recently released and indicated a promising economic outlook for Brazil in the first quarter of 2022, following the pandemic. Several Brazilian companies showed an increase in dividend payments, especially the major mining company Vale, which is among the top 10 dividend payers in the world. The recovery is substantial and brings optimism.
Vale had a decrease in dividends, from US$4 billion to R$3.6 billion between mid-2021 and the first quarter of 2022 due to falling mineral prices. However, due to its importance and scale in the global scenario, it managed to stay on the list of the top 10 dividend payers, ranking ninth, ahead of tech giant Apple.
Considering Brazilian industries, Brazil’s quarterly total reached 7.4%, including some declines at Banco Bradesco and significant increases at Ambev. However, in the Latin American scenario, there was a rise of 38.8%, driven largely by Grupo México. The only countries that saw significant declines in dividends, according to the report, were the United Kingdom and Japan, with rates recorded at -21.5% and -15.2%, respectively.
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In The Emerging Markets Companies Category, The Increase Was Also Significant, Mainly Due To The Mining Market
The ‘Emerging Markets Companies’ category, to which Brazil also belongs, recorded a 45% increase in dividend payments in the first quarter of 2022 compared to the same period the previous year. This rate was the highest, followed by Europe (excluding the UK) which recorded only 14.9%.
On the global scene, dividends reached a record total of US$ 302.5 billion, growing at a rate of 16.1%. This can be attributed to increases in dividends in the mining and energy sectors and from oil companies, which marked 29.7% and 31.8%, respectively, in this first quarter of 2022. Thus, there is an estimate of an unprecedented payment of over US$ 100 billion in dividends from mining companies.
Experts point out that the war in Ukraine has a significant influence on this scenario, driving up dividends in the main affected sectors: oil, mining, and energy.
However, much of this result is due to the normalization of payments in the recovery of the economy in Brazil and around the world after the pandemic. Yet, the second half of 2021 combined with the first quarter of 2022 shows that the result is more than just a product of payment normalization, as there was significant economic recovery.
The Economy In Brazil Was Not The Only One To Recover, As The Report Points To A Global Increase In Dividends
The Emerging Markets were not the only ones to experience an increase in dividends; it was a global trend. Out of 1,200 analyzed companies, 94% reported an increase in dividends or remained stable in this first quarter of 2022.
The United States of America (USA) also had interesting results, as expected. There, dividends overall increased by 10.4% and reached a remarkable historical figure of US$ 141.6 billion. However, according to the report, 99% of companies showed good results, with improvements in dividends or stability during this first quarter of 2022.
The Forecasts Of Janus Henderson Group Are Positive For The Economy In Brazil And In The World
Given this sequence of positive results, the Janus Henderson group made an annual forecast of US$1.54 trillion for 2022, which is equivalent to 4.6% over the total obtained in 2021. The group members are optimistic for 2022, but the forecasts calculated for the coming years remain the same.
The world is facing a scenario of challenges, driven by the war in Ukraine, inflation and rising interest rates, and the exit from the pandemic, which may impact corporate profit in various segments.
“These challenges also mean greater uncertainty that will likely affect corporate decision-making. The impact on dividends is likely to appear beyond 2022, but it’s important to remember that dividends are far less volatile than profits. The latter tend to shift dramatically over the economic cycle, but dividends tend to be much more stable. In fact, the fact that dividends have already surpassed pre-pandemic highs is part of a long-term narrative that highlights how dividends have proven to be a reliable source of long-term income growth. Additionally, this growth means that dividends offer some shelter against inflation, which cash savings cannot provide.”
Jane Shoemake, Client Portfolio Manager of Janus Henderson Group’s Global Equity Income Team.
The group also highlights that these values are based on the analysis between periods of the 1,200 largest global companies that make up the index. Therefore, one-time dividends affected by geography or sector are not considered.
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