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Income of the Poorest is Expected to Grow Less in 2026, Study Indicates. Projection Suggests that the Income of the Poorest Will Advance by Only 1.9% Next Year, a Rate Lower than That of Higher Classes and Below the National Average
The income of the poorest in Brazil is expected to have limited growth in 2026, according to a survey by the consultancy Tendências. The expectation is that classes D and E will report an increase of only 1.9% in the next year, while the national average will be 3%, and the wealthiest classes may reach up to 3.8%. This data reinforces the disparity in income growth among different income brackets.
The study considers the sum of all family incomes, including salaries, pensions, social benefits, and investment profits. In the case of lower classes, the dependence on social transfers and pension benefits weighs more on the final result, which reduces the impact of any salary increases.
Difference in Growth Rate
Among the factors that explain why the income of the poorest grows less is the lower participation of income from financial investments or capital gains, which carry more weight in the income of higher classes. In contrast, benefits like Bolsa Família and BPC represent 17.6% of the income of the poorest families, while pensions account for 37.6%.
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The report also indicates that, between 2023 and 2026, the accumulated income gain of the poorest will be only 10%, compared to 25.1% in class A and 35% in class B. This difference is explained by the uneven performance of income sources, with significant gains in segments that depend on financial investments, rent, and business profits.
Perspectives for 2026
For next year, the consultancy projects a slower economy, with still high interest rates and moderate job market growth. This combination may limit the recovery of income for the most vulnerable families, even in a scenario of controlled inflation.
Still, Tendências assesses that the gradual improvement in formal employment and the maintenance of income transfer programs may prevent a real decline in earnings. The evolution of the income of the poorest will be decisive for internal consumption, especially in sectors such as food, clothing, and essential services.
Do you think this growth rate is enough to improve the living standards of low-income families? Share your opinion in the comments.
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