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Sergio Sacani Warns What Could Cause Gas Prices in Brazil to Soar
Brazil is about to face a decline in oil production in the coming years. Experts and entities in the energy sector warn of the need for immediate actions to prevent the country from becoming an importer of the commodity again, despite currently being a leading player among the world’s major producers. If this occurs, a spike in gas prices is expected.
Rodolfo Saboia, director of the National Agency of Petroleum, Natural Gas and Biofuels (ANP), emphasized during Offshore Week 2023 the strategic importance of opening new exploratory frontiers. According to him, without new investments, Brazil’s offshore production will face an irreversible decline.
“It is very important that we look at the strategic nature of opening new exploratory frontiers. We must keep in mind that it is not possible to imagine, today, renewables supplying everything that comes from fossil fuels. If we do nothing, the day will come when we will be oil importers, not exporters,” Saboia stated.
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Worrying Projections for the Oil and Gasoline Sector
Recent data from the Energy Research Company (EPE), linked to the Ministry of Mines and Energy, confirms the warnings.
The Decennial Energy Expansion Plan (PDE) 2034 indicates that the peak oil production in Brazil will be reached in 2030, with 5.3 million barrels per day. However, from then on, a rapid decline is expected, with production falling by nearly 1 million barrels per day just four years later.
The projections of PDE 2034 are even more pessimistic than those presented in the previous plan, PDE 2032.
The previous estimate forecast a peak in 2029, with 5.4 million barrels per day, and a more gradual decline in the subsequent years. This decline directly reflects the reduction in exploratory activities and the discovery of new reserves, a problem that has been worsening in recent years.
According to EPE, the volumes projected in PDE 2034 are, on average, 1% lower than those estimated in PDE 2032. This seemingly small difference reflects the increasing difficulty of the sector in maintaining production amid economic and environmental challenges.
Exploration
One of the factors complicating the scenario is the long timeframe required for new discoveries to come online. The PDE 2034 makes it clear that “resources discovered in the second half of the decade will not come into production within the decadal horizon.”
This means that even if Brazil finds new reserves in unexplored areas, these discoveries will not be sufficient to reverse the decline until 2034.
According to the study, the interval between the beginning of exploration and effective production ranges from 3 to 5 years for onshore areas and from 7 to 10 years for offshore areas. This makes immediate exploratory efforts essential to mitigate the impact of future production declines.
“Due to timelines that can vary from 3 to 5 years (onshore) or from 7 to 10 years (offshore) between the start of the exploration phase and the start of production in new frontier areas, there is an immediate need for exploratory efforts to contain the predicted decline in production over the next few years,” emphasizes PDE 2034.
Risks of External Dependence
A lack of action could lead Brazil to become a net oil importer again. Despite being one of the largest exporters currently, the country faces the risk of relying on external markets to meet its energy needs.
The reduction in production affects not only the trade balance. It also endangers the country’s energy security, increasing vulnerability to external shocks and fluctuations in the global oil market.
Sergio Sacani’s Warning About Gas Prices
In an interview with the AchismosTV channel, physicist Sergio Sacani issued a concerning warning about the future of the Brazilian economy. He highlighted that if Brazil DOES NOT explore new oil reserves, gas prices could soar to R$ 40 per liter at the pump. Watch the video below.
With this scenario, the Equatorial Margin emerges as the main bet for the future of oil production in the country, keeping gas prices low.
The region, which stretches between the states of Rio Grande do Norte and Amapá, may conceal at least 10 billion barrels of commercially viable oil.
This potential is seen as a great economic opportunity. The government estimates that exploration of this area could generate a return of over R$ 1 trillion for public coffers.
Petrobras is awaiting authorization from Ibama to start operations. This license, according to CNN, is expected to be granted between March and April next year.
For experts, this development is crucial for the national economy. However, the issue involves a series of complex questions, such as the environmental impacts that may affect the local ecosystem.
The Equatorial Margin region is sensitive and still poorly studied, which generates apprehension among environmentalists.
The proximity to the mouth of the Amazon River increases the risk of irreversible damage to the environment, which is home to various endangered species and plays a fundamental role in global climate balance.
The debate over the benefits and risks of this exploration intensified in 2023. During this period, Petrobras requested licenses from Ibama for drilling in the area, but the agency denied the request, citing the lack of adequate studies on environmental impacts.
The decision sparked a direct confrontation with the company and reignited the discussion on how Brazil should reconcile economic development with environmental preservation.
É a deixa para buscar mais energia limpa e renovável. Como solar, eólica, álcool e biodiesel
Não se esqueça da nuclear.
Completamente fora da casinha. Paraguay, Uruguai, Chile não produzem 1 gota de petróleo e os combustiveis seguem em paridade com os preços internacionais. Besteiras desse Sérgio sacani
O petróleo do Brasil é vendido para o exterior e queimado para sustentar caldeiras. É muito caro refinar o nosso petróleo, então ele não vira gasolina. Um dos objetivos da transposição do são Francisco e outros projetos ligados a isso que deveriam estar prontos. Era aumentar o plantio de cana e milho para suprir a indústria, gerando álcool e plástico biodegradável. A maioria dos veículos deveriam estar usando álcool. E que fique a lição. Nossas indústrias não podem poluir o meio ambiente o que tornou nosso processo caro. Mas os chineses podem queimam nosso petróleo e vende produtos baratos pela shoope. Lá fora os carros movidos a diesel, fazem uma quilometragem muito mais alta. Enquanto lá fora usaram e abusaram para se tornar um país de primeiro mundo, nós aqui ficamos estacionados e dependentes do redor do mundo. Nossa política energética é péssima. E